Dr. Arthur Caplan

Dear Commons Community,

Dr. Arthur Caplan, Director of the Division of Medical Ethics at NYU School of Medicine in New York City, was on a panel yesterday on CNN discussing the uncontrolled spread of coronavirus in a number of states in our country.  The panelists including Dr. Caplan came to the same conclusion that President Trump has said and done everything wrong in dealing with the pandemic:  “It will go away;”  “You don’t have to wear masks;”  “99% of coronavirus cases are totally harmless;” etc.  As the segment drew to a close, the panelists were asked for their closing comments.  Caplan gave a beaut.  He said Trump should have as his presidential campaign slogan:  “Vote for me if I haven’t managed to kill you yet!”

Tony

Dear Commons Community,

Dear Commons Community,

It is July and schools districts around the country are now facing decisions about how to re-open in the fall.  The decisions are being made at the state and local school district levels and there is little consensus.  Here in New York, while some local officials such as NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio has suggested that schools might re-open with at least some form of in-person classes, Governor Andrew Cuomo has stated “not so fast’ and that the decision will be made at the state level. The Associated Press has an article this morning examining how some school districts are facing this decision. Here is an excerpt.

“School districts across America are in the midst of making wrenching decisions over how to resume classes in settings radically altered by the coronavirus pandemic, with school buses running below capacity, virtual learning, outdoor classrooms and quarantine protocols for infected children the new norm.

The plans for the upcoming school year are taking shape by the day, and vary district to district, state to state. The debates have been highly emotional, with tempers flaring among parents and administrators, and have been made all the more vexing by record numbers of COVID-19 cases being reported each day.

In Florida, some school districts want students back in the classroom in early August, even though the virus is surging through communities. On average, Florida has reported more than 7,000 new cases each day recently — more than seven times what it was reporting a month ago.

New Mexico, which has been largely spared major outbreaks, plans a hybrid model of virtual and in-person learning. Parents in New York have demanded schools reopen in the fall. And in Maine, more outdoor learning is planned. Districts nationwide are coming up with various rules for wearing masks. Some want all students to wear them. Others, such as Marion County, Indiana, plan to limit the requirement to older children.

Each of these decisions is fraught, trying to balance health concerns with clawing back as much normalcy as possible. Parents, wrung out after months of juggling full-time work and full-time home schooling, are desperate for help. Children, isolated from their peers, are yearning for social interaction. And everyone, including teachers, is concerned about stepping into the unknown, with so much still uncertain about the virus.

Districts are worried about being able to afford added supplies — including masks and more buses. And school officials said the resurgence of virus cases underway could shatter reopening plans before they’re even put in place.

“If we see large outbreaks happening across communities, it’s going to be very hard to keep schools open,” said Dr. Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, on “Fox News Sunday.” “The good news is we think kids transmit less. They are certainly less likely to get sick, but … imagine Arizona right now. If schools were open right now, they would not be able to stay open.”

Aimee Rodriguez Webb, a special education teacher in Cobb County, Georgia, is wrestling with her own health concerns while waiting to hear her district’s plans. She also has a 3 year old.

“I love being in the classroom. And this year I get my own classroom, so I was looking forward to decorating it and all that,” she said. “But then the flip side is … I don’t know that I’m mentally ready to step into the unknown like that.”

Schools around the U.S. shut down suddenly this year as coronavirus cases first began rising. That led to a hodgepodge of distance learning, on-the-fly homeschooling and, for some families, a lack of any school at all. Districts are now turning their focus to how to create more structured environments.

But the debates have been filled with tension. Near Rochester, New York, parents rallied in favor of fully opening schools, holding signs outside an administration building June 29 saying: “No normal school? No school taxes!”

Christina Higley, a parent in the Rochester suburb of Webster, said she started a Facebook group initially to demand answers and have a say in what school would look like, but the discussions there sparked a movement for reopening schools.

“There’s a lot of parents that are saying, `Open our schools, let us have the decision if we feel comfortable sending the children in to them,’” said Higley, whose children just finished kindergarten, third and fifth grade.

The decisions are even more complicated in districts where the case count is rising. In Manatee County, Florida, the working plan is for all elementary students to return to school full time on Aug. 10. Older students would rely on virtual learning while they are phased back into brick-and-mortar schools.

But that proposal isn’t set in stone amid a surge in infections. The county recorded its highest number of new cases in a single day in late June.

If a student tests positive for the virus in the new school year, classrooms or whole buildings would need to be disinfected, said Mike Barber, a district spokesman. Students and staff with confirmed infections wouldn’t be able to return until they had tested negative twice.

Meanwhile, medical experts have expressed concerns for children’s development and mental health. The American Academy of Pediatrics said it “strongly advocates that all policy considerations for the coming school year should start with a goal of having students physically present in school.”

In Cape Elizabeth, Maine, Shael Norris said she’s particularly concerned about children who could face abuse at home and parents who risk losing their jobs to care for their kids. Norris has two children set to attend high school in the fall and runs a nonprofit that combats sexual assault.

“There are so many equally important risks, and we’re focused entirely on COVID,” she said. “But I get it. It’s scary.”

Maine never saw a major outbreak, and it is now reporting, on average, a few dozen cases each day. Still, the state’s largest school district of Portland has left all the options on the table: a full reopening, a partial reopening or fully remote learning.

The district sent a letter to parents that said it plans to use outdoor space when possible — a solution for only a few months a year, given Maine’s weather.

In order to keep kids a safe distance apart on school buses, districts will need more vehicles — an especially thorny issue for rural districts, where students travel vast distances. New Mexico has issued guidelines that buses should be run at 50% capacity, according to Nancy Martira, a spokeswoman for the state Department of Education.

Many districts plan to lean heavily on federal bailout money to pay for their extra transportation needs.

It’s all adding up to an anxious start to the school year.”

To complicate the issue further, while decisions have to be made about how the schools will open in the fall, those that do re-open with in-person classes, have to develop plans for how the schools might have to close again should the coronavirus spread a second wave of infections.

Tony  

Dear Commons Community,

President Donald Trump vowed to “safeguard our values” from enemies within — leftists, looters, agitators, he said — in a Fourth of July speech packed with all the grievances and combativeness of his political rallies.  His odious remarks were a reflection of his political standing: trailing in the polls, lacking a booming economy or a positive message to campaign on, and leaning on culture wars to buoy his loyalists. Here is an excerpt from an Associated Press article describing his speech last night. 

“Trump watched paratroopers float to the ground in a tribute to America, greeted his audience of front-line medical workers and others central in responding to the coronavirus pandemic, and opened up on those who “slander” him and disrespect the country’s past.

“We are now in the process of defeating the radical left, the anarchists, the agitators, the looters, and the people who, in many instances, have absolutely no clue what they are doing,” he said. “We will never allow an angry mob to tear down our statues, erase our history, indoctrinate our children.

“And we will defend, protect and preserve (the) American way of life, which began in 1492 when Columbus discovered America.”

He did not mention the dead from the pandemic. Nearly 130,000 are known to have died from COVID-19 in the U.S.

Even as officials across the country pleaded with Americans to curb their enthusiasm for large Fourth of July crowds, Trump enticed the masses with a “special evening” of tribute and fireworks staged with new U.S. coronavirus infections on the rise.

But the crowds wandering the National Mall for the night’s air show and fireworks were strikingly thinner than the gathering for last year’s jammed celebration on the Mall.

Many who showed up wore masks, unlike those seated close together for Trump’s South Lawn event, and distancing was easy to do for those scattered across the sprawling space.

Trump did not hesitate to use the country’s birthday as an occasion to assail segments of the country that do not support him.

Carrying on a theme he pounded on a day earlier against the backdrop of the Mount Rushmore monuments, he went after those who have torn down statues or think some of them, particularly those of Confederate figures, should be removed. Support has been growing among Republicans to remove Confederate memorials.”

Hopefully this will be the last time we have to hear this boor on the 4^th of July!

Tony

Photo Credit:  Ellen Weinstein

Dear Commons Community,

Susan Dynarski, professor of education, public policy and economics at the University of Michigan, has an op-ed in today’s New York Times which makes the point that bringing millions of students back to campus would create enormous risks for society but comparatively little educational benefit.  She recommends that colleges offer their courses online and not bring the students to campus for fear of coronavirus spread.

I agree with her position and as I have said in a previous posting  on this blog:   “With students back on campus, we are only one keg party away from a health catastrophe.”

Dynarski’s entire op-ed is below.

Tony

New York Times

Susan Dynarski

07/05/20

College Is Worth It, but Campus Isn’t

Each fall, millions of students head to college campuses. Most stay close to home, but many crisscross the country to study in a different state.

Students typically move into crowded housing and reconnect with friends at parties, mixers and bars. When classes start, they customarily file into large lecture halls and small seminar rooms, sitting close together, heads bent over books and laptops.

This is a joyful scene in most years. In a pandemic it would be an epidemiological nightmare.

Colleges will have to look very different this fall if they are to avoid accelerating the pandemic. But financial and political pressures are forcing many schools to make choices involving difficult trade-offs between their students’ education, public health and their own economic well-being.

Colleges were among the first institutions to respond when much of the world went into lockdown this spring: Campuses closed, and students finished their interrupted semesters online. Now, college administrators are pondering how they will reboot this fall.

Here’s a scarily plausible chain of events. Colleges bring students back to campus — where they act like college students. They meet over coffee, go to parties and bars, pair off on dates and congregate in crowded dorms. The virus quickly spreads among students, who mostly recover quickly or are entirely asymptomatic.

But soon the virus reaches the older, more vulnerable members of the faculty and staff, as well as local residents. Infections surge. Teaching hospitals care for the ill at the larger universities, but small, regional hospitals near rural colleges are quickly overwhelmed.

No one wants to see this happen. Unfortunately, the choices that minimize contagion tend to undermine the broader college experience, which is built on intense social interaction in classrooms and at cultural events, political activities and sporting events.

The California State University system plans to keep the education of its nearly half a million students online. So does California’s community college system, which enrolls two million students. These campuses will remain shut down.

But many four-year colleges plan a mix of online and face-to-face learning. Boston University is allowing its students to choose between learning exclusively online and taking some classes in person, as is Northeastern University, also in Boston. Stanford will allow just half of its students on campus each quarter.

To minimize student travel, many schools are compressing the academic calendar and eliminating breaks. The University of Michigan will send students home at Thanksgiving to complete the semester online.

Throughout the country, students who do return will find a transformed campus. At many colleges, students will live alone in dorm rooms, eating boxed meals or going to dining halls in staggered shifts. There will be few, if any, college-sanctioned parties or sports events. Students will wear masks, as will their teachers and campus workers — though mask policies will vary by school, just as they differ across states and cities.

Classes will largely be online, even at the many colleges that are bringing students back to campus. There simply isn’t enough classroom space to do otherwise: Once students are spread six feet apart — the standard requirement for social distancing — classrooms can hold only a small fraction of their usual capacity. Huge lecture halls built for hundreds can safely hold a few dozen, scattered among rows of empty seats.

Many students struggle with the online format, but that is a moot point. The operative question is where students will do their largely online learning: from their homes or on campus.

Colleges can plausibly influence how students behave in classroom buildings, but they have a far weaker position outside class. After all, colleges have struggled for years to prevent alcohol abuse and other risky behaviors on campus. Keeping college students from getting physically close to one another is, many fear, an impossible task.

Recent coronavirus outbreaks in Florida and South Carolina have been linked to fraternity parties and bars popular with students. Evidence from Japan indicates that young people seeded many of that country’s outbreaks by gathering at karaoke clubs and bars.

Consider the problems in Fort Benning, Ga., where the Army trains recruits. Just four of 640 recruits tested positive for the coronavirus when they arrived this spring — but within a few weeks, more than a hundred were infected. It is unlikely that colleges will be more effective than the Army in enforcing strict social distancing and safety protocols.

Yet some students must return to campus to continue their education, for many reasons. Their families may not have a quiet or safe place where they can study, or there’s no reliable internet. And some classes, such as a nursing internship or a chemistry lab, simply can’t be taught online. Many colleges are putting a priority on finding space in housing and classrooms for these exceptions. But for the typical student, whose courses will largely be online, learning this fall does not require being on or near campus.

Given the enormous health risks involved in bringing students back, why are so many colleges promising to open their campuses? The answer is simple: Their financial survival depends on it. Many four-year colleges, especially the most selective schools, provide not just classroom learning but also the social experience of clubs, athletics, culture, politics and professional networking.

Without the promise of a campus experience, some students may opt to take a year off or enroll in a cheaper school. In addition, public colleges are facing sharp cuts from state governments coping with plunging tax receipts. If these colleges also lose revenue from tuition, fees, room and board, they will be forced to shutter programs and lay off large numbers of employees and faculty. At best, it would take decades for higher education to recover from such losses and disruption.

With no indication that the federal government is prepared to step in quickly with a financial rescue plan for higher education, colleges and universities are being forced to choose between bad alternatives.

But a toll will be paid, and it will largely not fall on students. Dining-hall workers, custodians, secretaries, librarians, medical personnel — as well as older faculty members — are far more vulnerable.

As an economist, I’m frequently asked, “Is college still worth it?” My answer is almost invariably yes: The lifetime payoff to earning a college degree is so very large, in health and wealth, that it dwarfs even high tuition costs. College is an especially smart choice during a terrible job market.

But in this pandemic, the college experience has to change. Gathering students on campus is a gamble that could generate outsize risks for society and only modest benefits for students.

Dear Commons Community,

We cannot let our guard down as we celebrate our country’s birthday today during the coronavirus pandemic. 

Spend time with family and friends but in very small gatherings. Wear masks, practice social distancing, and wash your hands.

A Happy and Safe 4th of July!

Tony

Texas Governor Greg Abbott Donning a Face Mask

Dear Commons Community,

In a dramatic reversal of his messaging over the past several months, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott yesterday ordered that face coverings must be worn in public across most of the state, in an effort to control spiking numbers of confirmed coronavirus cases and hospitalizations.

Abbott, who had pushed Texas’ aggressive reopening of the state economy in May, had previously said the government could not order individuals to wear masks. His prior virus-related orders had undercut efforts by local governments to enforce mask requirements.

But faced with rising numbers of both newly confirmed cases of the COVID-19 virus and the number of patients so sick they needed to be hospitalized, Abbott changed course with yesterday’s mask order. It requires “all Texans to wear a face covering over the nose and mouth in public spaces in counties with 20 or more positive COVID-19 cases, with few exceptions,” the governor’s office said.  As reported by the Associated Press.

“We are now at a point where the virus is spreading so fast, there is little margin for error,” Abbott said.

Texas reported 7,915 newly confirmed cases, a slight dip after zooming past the 8,000 mark for the first time on Wednesday. The 7,382 hospitalizations means the state has more than quadrupled its numbers in that category since the end of May.

The true number of cases is likely much higher because many people have not been tested and studies suggest that people can be infected and not feel sick.

Abbott’s action comes as Texans approach the Fourth of July weekend, a time usually marked by gatherings and parties. Along the coast, local officials have said that access to many beaches will be restricted. And a lakeside concert by 1990s rapper Vanilla Ice that was set to take place outside of Austin on Friday was postponed after being criticized for planning to gather hundreds of fans in one of the nation’s coronavirus hot spots.

The mask order takes effect today and the minimum case count would cover most of the state’s 254 counties and most of the population. Counties with fewer than 20 cases cover mostly rural areas and will be allowed to apply with the governor’s office for an exemption.

The order also applies to the Texas GOP Convention in Houston in two weeks — which is still pressing forward after party leaders late Thursday voted against switching to a virtual gathering. The convention typically draws thousands of attendees, and some party activists criticized Abbott’s mandate while backing a three-day, in-person event starting July 16.

Mask order violators can be fined up to $250. There are exceptions for people who have a medical condition or disability, who are exercising outdoors, or who are participating in a religious service or voting. Texas this week began its monthlong early voting period for its primary elections.

Abbott also gave mayors and county authorities the ability to ban outdoor gatherings of more than 10 people.

In his order and a statement, Abbott said wearing a mask is a proven method to slowing down the virus’ spread and said if Texans comply “more extreme measures may be avoided.”

Abbott has said he doesn’t want to roll back his previous orders to reopen the economy. But last week he moved to reclose bars and limit dine-in capacity in restaurants to 50%.

“We have the ability to keep businesses open and move our economy forward so that Texans can continue to earn a paycheck, but it requires each of us to do our part to protect one another — and that means wearing a face covering in public spaces,” Abbott said.

Abbott has been under extreme pressure from both Democrats and Republicans on his reopening plans.

Democrats, most notably the leadership of the state’s largest cities, have complained Abbott reopened Texas too quickly and have pointed to the record numbers of confirmed new cases and hospitalizations.

Conservative lawmakers battered Abbott’s early moves to combat the virus, including business, school and child-care closures and a stay-at-home order that expired in May.

In April, Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick called attempts by local governments in the Houston area to enforce mask orders with fines the “ultimate government overreach.”

“The move to mandate facemasks comes far too little, far too late for Governor Abbott,” Texas Democratic Party Communications Director Abhi Rahman said. “Texans are still getting sick. Families are still suffering … All of this could have been prevented if Governor Abbott had listened to experts and medical professionals in the first place.”

The Texas Medical Association applauded the mask order.

“There is no question about it, face masks reduce the spread of COVID-19. They help protect the people wearing masks, and they help protect the people around them,” said the association’s president, Dr. Diana L. Fite.”

Governor Abbot finally got the message!

Tony

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRJf9iTyaCM

Dear Commons Community,

Dear Commons Community,

The Lincoln Project released a video (above) of former Navy SEAL Dan Barkhuff ripping into Trump. 

“I’m a pro-life, gun-owning combat veteran,” Barkhuff says in the ad. “And I can see Trump for what he is: a coward. We need to send this draft dodger back to his golf courses. The lives of our troops depend on it.”

Dear Commons Community,

Imagine you’re a student in Fall 2020, juggling the excitement about your classes with the fear of attending them in person because of  Covid-19.

That’s the premise of an online simulation created by Cait S. Kirby, a doctoral candidate in biology at Vanderbilt University. Users are asked to make a series of decisions that align with what a single day of in-person classes might look like for students this fall. The first choice — whether or not to sleep in — quickly illustrates the effects of a socially distanced campus. Choose to sleep in, and you miss your allotted five minutes in the bathroom. Opt to wake up, and you realize as you’re leaving your dorm that you’ve forgotten your mask.

Kirby’s story is a fiction rooted in reality: More than 60 percent of colleges in The Chronicle‘s fall-reopening tracker plan to resume in-person instruction this fall. The simulation resonated with academics on Twitter, many of whom told Kirby they planned to share her work with colleagues or administrators. Before long, she followed up with a second interactive story, this one told from a faculty member’s point of view. Now she’s planning versions that are told from the perspectives of a graduate student and a contingent faculty member.

The simulations, which Kirby made with the open-source storytelling tool Twine, force users to make a string of tough decisions that illustrate what day-to-day life in academe might look like this fall. The Chronicle of Higher Education interviewed Kirby about how the simulations came to be, the importance of including marginalized perspectives in fall planning, and whether she sees her work as a form of advocacy.

Most interesting simulations that will likely play out in real life in two months on college campuses.

Tony