Dear Commons Community,

Bill de Blasio, who served as New York City’s mayor for two terms says he will seek the Congressional House seat about to be vacated by Representative  Jerry Nadler, a Democratic stalwart from the Upper West Side.

The 61-year-old de Blasio made the announcement yesterday after days of speculation about the political future of a polarizing progressive who has never attained the national attention he has long sought. His restlessness all but assured an eventual return to electoral politics.

“I’ll tell you, I feel a fire,” he said, touting a mayoral record that included free preschool for all children in New York City. “Over these months, watching what’s happening in this country, my fire is greater than ever to get in and help people.”

De Blasio will be running for the 10th District, which includes lower Manhattan and parts of Brooklyn. A complex judicial redrawing of congressional district lines has resulted in a game of political musical chairs, with Nadler opting to run in a new district against Rep. Carolyn Maloney, a fellow old-guard Democrat.

Eventual victory by a Democrat in the 10th District is all but assured, given the liberal-to-progressive constituency there. De Blasio is the highest-profile candidate in the race so far. If he were to win, he’d join a New York City congressional delegation that includes a lone Republican: Nicole Malliotakis of Staten Island, who is fighting off a challenge from Max Rose, a Democrat who previously held the seat.

De Blasio was criticized for a slow response to the coronavirus pandemic, including his habit of commuting to Brooklyn for walks in Prospect Park at a time when the city was under lockdown. But he was also one of the first Democratic mayors to push for a return to in-person schooling in the fall of 2020.

The racial justice protests of that summer were another signal moment in the de Blasio administration. Though he had come into office vowing to reform the New York City Police Department, which had long been criticized for excessive and prejudicial practices in nonwhite neighborhoods, a killing of two officers early in his first term left him badly rattled and hesitant.

By the time protests took to the streets in the spring and summer of 2020, progressives had become disenchanted with his unwillingness to take on the powerful police union that continued to set the city’s law enforcement agenda. After an NYPD van was seen driving into protesters in late May of that year, de Blasio defended the officers involved.

Despite his slips as mayor, de Blasio overall would be a good representative in Congress!

Tony

Dear Commons Community,

According to NBC News, former Senator David Perdue’s once-spirited primary challenge to Georgia Governor Brian Kemp appears to be sputtering in the homestretch ahead of Tuesday’s vote.

Even the man who recruited Perdue to run against Kemp — former President Donald Trump — seems to have given his campaign up for dead, said three Republicans who have spoken to Trump. They say Trump has groused about what he believes is a lackluster campaign effort from Perdue.

Trump isn’t planning to make any more personal appearances in Georgia in Perdue’s behalf, having sunk enough of his own political capital in a race that looks like a lost cause, said a fourth source, a person close to the former president, speaking on condition of anonymity to talk more freely about Perdue’s prospects.

According to a survey done for Fox News published on Wednesday, Perdue is trailing far behind Fox — 60% of the respondents who voted early or cast absentee ballots surveyed between May 12 and 16 said they voted for Kemp, while 28% said they picked Perdue. 

“David either has a bunch of geniuses working for him — because he’s basically spent no money — or he’s run the most flawed campaign in America,” this person said while noting that Perdue still has an outside shot at forcing a runoff.

See MSNBC video segment above commenting on this and other Georgia primary contests.

Tony

Dear Commons Community,

Trump’s business failings — and the number of lawsuits he currently faces — are laid bare in damning detail in the S-4 registration statement that Digital World Acquisition Corp., the special-purpose acquisition company that is merging with Trump’s Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. to take it public, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday.

Multiple risk factors associated with doing business with Trump are highlighted in the filing because, it says, the company’s success depends largely on his reputation and popularity.

Of Trump’s lengthy history of bankruptcies, it states:

Entities associated with President Trump have filed for bankruptcy protection. The Trump Taj Mahal, which was built and owned by President Trump, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 1991. The Trump Plaza, the Trump Castle, and the Plaza Hotel, all owned by President Trump at the time, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 1992. THCR, which was founded by President Trump in 1995, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2004. Trump Entertainment Resorts, Inc., the new name given to Trump Hotels & Casino Resorts after its 2004 bankruptcy, declared bankruptcy in 2009. While all of the foregoing were in different businesses than TMTG, there can be no guarantee that TMTG’s performance will exceed the performance of those entities.

Of failed license agreements with Trump, it notes:

Trump Shuttle, Inc., launched by President Trump in 1989, defaulted on its loans in 1990 and ceased to exist by 1992. Trump University, founded by President Trump in 2005, ceased operations in 2011 amid lawsuits and investigations regarding the company’s business practices. Trump Vodka, a brand of vodka produced by Drinks Americas under license from the Trump Organization, was introduced in 2005 and discontinued in 2011. Trump Mortgage, LLC, a financial services company founded by President Trump in 2006, ceased operations in 2007. GoTrump.com, a travel site founded by President Trump in 2006, ceased operations in 2007. Trump Steaks, a brand of steak and other meats founded by President Trump in 2007, discontinued sales two months after its launch. While all these businesses were in different industries than TMTG, there can be no guarantee that TMTG’s performance will exceed the performance of these entities.

In both cases, the statement warns there are “no assurances” that the new company will not go the same way as Trump’s past scuttled ventures.

The filing also details the “numerous lawsuits and other matters that could damage his reputation, cause him to be distracted from the business or could force him to resign from TMTG’s board of directors.”

They range from the congressional investigation into Trump’s role in the incitement of the deadly U.S. Capitol riot and his alleged removal of classified documents to a defamation lawsuit from writer E. Jean Carroll, who has accused Trump of rape.

“The foregoing does not purport to be an exhaustive list,” the document warned.

He also failed at reelection to be President of the United States in 2020.

Tony

Dear Commons Community,

As if the resurgence of COVID wasn’t enough,  seven countries are investigating possible cases of monkeypox,  including the United States where a second possible case has been reported in New York City.

A day after a case was reported in Massachusetts, health officials in New York City reported a possible case of monkeypox.

Canada on Thursday reported 17 possible monkeypox cases. Several countries in Europe are reporting outbreaks as well: There are 22 suspected cases being investigated in Spain, 20 in Portugal, seven cases in the United Kingdom, one in Italy and one in Sweden. 

No source of infection has yet been confirmed, according to the World Health Organization.   As reported by USA Today.

Monkeypox is not a disease of monkeys but instead lives in small rodents mostly in central and west Africa. The rodents infect monkeys and both can pass it along to humans.

While most cases of the disease come from contact with wild animals, not human-to-human contact, health authorities are investigating how the new surge in cases is spreading.

Some of the cases appear to have spread between sexual partners and it appears all the reported cases are in men so far.

“Mainly those cases are men that have had sexual relationships with other men, ages between 35 and 50 years old,” Dr. Mylène Drouin, Montreal’s public health director, said during a news conference on Thursday. “The clinical presentation is mainly ulceration of oral and genital parts that are painful with a phase before the eruption with fever, sweating and headaches.” 

Experts emphasized monkeypox, a much less dangerous relative of smallpox, is not a sexually transmitted disease.

“It can transmit through respiratory droplets or person-to-person contact,” said Anne Rimoin, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Los Angeles and a national expert on monkeypox.    

Most of the patients appear to have ulcerative lesions, rash, swollen lymph nodes often accompanied by fever, chills, headache, muscle pain and tiredness. Anyone experiencing these symptoms should reach out to their health care provider.

Many possible cases turn out not to be monkeypox because the disease can be mistaken for other infections and skin rashes.

“In fact, it can be really difficult to differentiate from chickenpox. You get fevers, swollen lymph nodes and small little blisters of fluid throughout your body,” said Dr. Seth Blumberg, an infectious disease specialist at the University of California, San Francisco.

There is no need for alarm among the public because monkeypox is not highly contagious.

“This isn’t COVID again. This isn’t Wuhan China in 2019,” Blumberg said.

It’s unlikely that anyone who hasn’t been in very close, physical proximity to someone infected with monkeypox is in any danger, said Dr. Aaron Glatt, chief of infectious diseases at Mount Sinai South Nassau Hospital in Hewlett, NY. 

“Your exposure if you’re sitting next to someone on the subway is very different than if you’re engaging in relations with them,” said Glatt, who is also a fellow with the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

Prior to this, all but one case of monkeypox outside of Africa was the result of either confirmed or suspected animal-to-human transmission, according to a paper published in February in the journal “PLOS: Neglected Tropical Diseases.”

The only human-to-human transmission case was between a health care worker in the United Kingdom who cared for a patient there.

Figuring out how or if the latest cases are linked will take careful public health investigation.

“It’s too soon to have any clarity. It is an unusual situation,” said Rimion, who has been studying the disease in Africa since the 1990s. “We don’t yet know who, what, where, why or when.”

Monkeypox is one of a family of more than nine viruses that includes smallpox, one of the most deadly diseases to ever infect humans, killing about one in three people who got it before it was eradicated in 1980, considered one of the greatest public health achievements of all time. 

The death rate for monkeypox in areas with high-quality medical care is well below 1% of cases, said Glatt.

The last large outbreak in the United States was in 2003 when small mammals shipped from Ghana to Texas, including rope squirrels, tree squirrels, African giant pouched rats, brush-tailed porcupines, dormice, and striped mice, were all shown to be positive for monkeypox.

Some of the infected animals’ were then moved to the facilities of an animal vendor in Illinois, infecting prairie dogs held in nearby cages. The prairie dogs were then sold as pets, causing the outbreak.

Monkeypox outbreaks are thought to be increasing in part because once the smallpox virus was eradicated in 1980, large-scale vaccination against the scourge ceased. Vaccination against smallpox protects against monkeypox, said Rimoin.

“It makes sense as time goes on and the vast majority of the world has no immunity, and people come into contact with the monkeypox virus, that people will get infected,” she said. 

Something to be aware of

Tony

Dear Commons Community,

Dear Commons Community,

The past three weeks of Republican primary elections have presented a confused picture of former President Donald Trump’s influence in the GOP with some wins and some losses.

Trump’s endorsements have had a major impact in some races. He has shown the ability, in most competitive primaries, to direct about one-third of Republican voters to support his handpicked candidate. That may seem modest, but it’s the same percentage he received in most competitive primary elections in 2016 on his way to the presidential nomination.

He has also lost some big races. In Nebraska, his choice for governor, Charles Herbster, was rejected by Republican voters after being accused by a Republican state senator and numerous other women of predatory sexual behavior. Trump stood by Herbster after the accusations were made, and held a rally with him.

Rep. Madison Cawthorn’s loss in North Carolina’s 11th District this week was similar to Herbster’s, in that Cawthorn had so badly damaged his own standing with a series of embarrassing episodes that Trump’s support could not save him.

In Idaho on Tuesday night, the incumbent, Gov. Brad Little, handily defeated his sitting lieutenant governor, Janice McGeachin, who enjoyed Trump’s “complete and total endorsement.” By a margin of 53% to 31%, Little crushed McGeachin, who had aligned herself with extreme far-right figures in Idaho and had attempted to rescind Little’s pandemic guidelines while he was traveling out of state last year.

Trump backed off his attacks on Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine after suggesting that he should be challenged in the primary and the incumbent governor won nomination for a second term by a 20-point margin. As reported by Yahoo News.

“He’s certainly not setting the world on fire,” said Bill Palatucci, a Republican National Committee member from New Jersey. Palatucci is a longtime adviser to former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who has aggressively challenged Trump since the 2020 election and may run for president in 2024.

Many Democrats, however, are convinced that Trump is still the undisputed leader of the GOP, regardless of whether his chosen candidates win their primaries.

Joe Trippi, a longtime Democratic consultant who has worked on multiple presidential campaigns, was blunt about Trump and the Republican Party. “He owns it,” Trippi told Yahoo News.

Trump’s backing has been determinative in a few races. In North Carolina, he endorsed Rep. Ted Budd for Senate almost a year ago, and that selection gave Budd a clear path to the nomination, which he won easily this week. In Ohio, Trump helped push J.D. Vance over the finish line after a late endorsement weeks before the May 3 primary there.

Rep. Ted Budd, a Republican candidate for a U.S. Senate seat from North Carolina, with Trump, who endorsed him, at a rally April 9 in Selma, N.C. (Chris Seward/AP)

There is a trend here: Trump has done terribly in his endorsements for governor. But he’s been able to move the needle in races for U.S. Senate.

That trend is set to continue in Georgia next week, where the incumbent, Gov. Brian Kemp, is expected to easily defeat Trump’s pick, former U.S. Sen. David Perdue, and to win a second term. At the same time, Trump’s pick for U.S. Senate, former NFL star Herschel Walker, is expected to win the GOP primary handily as well, although he also also enjoys the support of establishment Republicans like Sen. Mitch McConnell, the minority leader.

The reasons for this contrast are fairly straightforward. Governors have stronger connections to their states, their decisions affect voters in a more tangible way, and so they are not as subject to national political trends. Members of Congress, however, are seen almost entirely through a national lens.

One other Georgia race that will be watched closely is for secretary of state, where the incumbent, Brad Raffensperger, has been a target of Trump’s because he — like Kemp — refused to accede to Trump’s demand to overturn the 2020 election results.

Given the results of the last few weeks, the Georgia results are not likely to shift perceptions too much one way or another. This gives both Trump and his opponents the ability to spin things in their favor.

“Trump lost big in Idaho. DeWine won in Ohio, and Vance only got a third. All just good for the country as well as the Republican Party,” Palatucci noted.

That may be the case, but without a clear rebuke of Trump by his own party — as demonstrated consistently over multiple contests — it is not apparent that anything will change.

The Pennsylvania results this week threw a few surprises into the mix. In the Senate race, Trump’s endorsement helped the TV celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz win about a third of the vote, but another fourth of the vote went with a surprise candidate, Kathy Barnette, whom many considered even more to the right than Oz.

The former hedge fund CEO David McCormick, a more establishment candidate, won another third of the vote, and trailed Oz by around 2,000 votes out of 1.3 million cast. McCormick and Oz are likely to be headed for a recount.

In the Pennsylvania governor’s race, Trump can claim a victory of sorts. He waited until three days before the primary to endorse state Sen. Doug Mastriano, who won his race Tuesday night. But Mastriano, who had long staked out a position as the most pro-Trump candidate in the primary, was already the clear favorite to win when Trump backed him.

Mastriano is widely considered the underdog in the fall election against Pennsylvania’s Democratic attorney general, Josh Shapiro, although the Republican turnout in the vote this week was so strong that it calls conventional wisdom into question.

Mastriano has been one of the most aggressive purveyors of Trump’s false claims that the 2020 election was unfair. He also played an active role in seeking to throw out millions of ballots cast by voters in his own state, in an attempt to undo the result and retroactively award the presidency to Trump.

If Mastriano were to win this fall, he would be in a strong position to influence the 2024 election results in a key swing state. Governors are one of the most consequential figures in transmitting Electoral College results to Congress. Congress has yet to pass legislation that bars governors from meddling with or overturning election results, and in Pennsylvania the governor appoints the state’s top election official.

As of now, there is room under the law — specifically the Electoral Count Act of 1887 — for a state legislature to try to throw out the popular vote in its state by sending a competing slate of electors to Congress. If the governor signs off on that slate, the law would dictate that those electors’ votes are the ones that are counted. A bipartisan group of senators is working on a law to close this loophole and prevent other forms of antidemocratic meddling.

Mastriano may be a liability for the GOP in the fall, but his primary win this week demonstrates clearly that there is an appetite for extremism among a significant portion of the Republican base.

The extent of that appetite has yet to be tested in primaries still to come, particularly in Arizona on Aug. 2, where another aggressive election denier, the former TV reporter Kari Lake, is running for governor in another key swing state. Trump endorsed Lake last September.

We will see!

Tony

Click on to enlarge

Dear Commons Community,

In New York City, the nation’s largest school district has lost some 50,000 students over the past two years. In Michigan, enrollment remains more than 50,000 below prepandemic levels from big cities to the rural Upper Peninsula.

In the suburbs of Orange County, Calif., where families have moved for generations to be part of the public school system, enrollment slid for the second consecutive year; statewide, more than a quarter-million public school students have dropped from California’s rolls since 2019.

And since school funding is tied to enrollment, cities that have lost many students — including Denver, Albuquerque and Oakland — are now considering combining classrooms, laying off teachers or shutting down entire schools.

All together, America’s public schools have lost at least 1.2 million students since 2020, according to a recently published national survey. State enrollment figures show no sign of a rebound to the previous national levels any time soon.  As reported by The New York Times.

A broad decline was already underway in the nation’s public school system as rates of birth and immigration have fallen, particularly in cities. But the coronavirus crisis supercharged that drop in ways that experts say will not easily be reversed.

No overriding explanation has emerged yet for the widespread drop-off. But experts point to two potential causes: Some parents became so fed up with remote instruction or mask mandates that they started home-schooling their children or sending them to private or parochial schools that largely remained open during the pandemic. And other families were thrown into such turmoil by pandemic-related job losses, homelessness and school closures that their children simply dropped out.

Now educators and school officials are confronting a potentially harsh future of lasting setbacks in learning, hardened inequities in education and smaller budgets accompanying smaller student populations.

“This has been a seismic hit to public education,” said Marguerite Roza, director of the Edunomics Lab at Georgetown University. “Student outcomes are low. Habits have been broken. School finances are really shaken. We shouldn’t think that this is going to be like a rubber band that bounces back to where it was before.”

There are roughly 50 million students in the United States public school system.

In large urban districts, the drop-off has been particularly acute. The Los Angeles Unified School District’s noncharter schools lost some 43,000 students over the past two school years. Enrollment in the Chicago schools has dropped by about 25,000 in that time frame.

But suburban and rural schools have not been immune.

In the suburbs of Kansas City, the school district of Olathe, Kan., lost more than 1,000 of its 33,000 or so students in 2020, as families relocated and shifted to private schools or home-schooling; only about half of them came back this school year.

In rural Woodbury County, Iowa, south of Sioux City, enrollment in the Westwood Community School District fell by more than 5 percent during the last two years, to 522 students from 552, in spite of a small influx from cities during the pandemic, the superintendent, Jay Lutt, said. Now, in addition to demographic trends that have long eroded the size of rural Iowa’s school populations, diminishing funding, the district is grappling with inflation as the price of fuel for school buses has soared, Mr. Lutt said.

In some states where schools eschewed remote instruction — Florida, for instance — enrollment has not only rebounded, but remains robust. An analysis by the American Enterprise Institute, a right-leaning think tank, concluded last month that remote instruction was a major driver around the country, with enrollment falling most in districts most likely to have delayed their return to in-person classrooms.

Private schools have also seen some gains in enrollment. Federal head counts have not yet been released, but both the National Association of Independent Schools and the National Catholic Educational Association have reported increases that total about 73,000 K-12 students during the past two years.

At the same time, some families are leaving their local public schools not because they are abandoning the system altogether but because they have moved to other parts of the country that are more affordable.

Enrollment has surged as well in rural resort areas, driven by the relocation of tech workers and others able to work remotely, particularly after the pandemic set in.

School funding is tied directly to enrollment numbers in most states, and while federal pandemic aid has buffered school budgets so far, the Biden administration has made it clear that the relief is finite. Some districts are already bracing for budget shortfalls.

“When you lose kids, you lose money,” Ms. Roza said. “There’s no hidden piece to this puzzle. You have to close schools and lay off people. And every day you spend trying to avoid that, your kids are getting older and still not reading, and your district is spending money it’s not going to have.”

This is a potential financial disaster for our public schools especially those in large urban areas.

Tony

Finland’s Ambassador to NATO Klaus Korhonen, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and Sweden’s Ambassador to NATO Axel Wernhoff attend a ceremony to mark Sweden’s and Finland’s application for membership in Brussels, Belgium. (Johanna Geron/Pool via AP)

Dear Commons Community,

NATO’s General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg said yesterday that the military alliance stands ready to seize a historic moment and move quickly on allowing Finland and Sweden to join its ranks, after the two countries formally submitted their membership requests.

The official applications, handed over by Finland and Sweden’s ambassadors to NATO, set a security clock ticking. Russia, whose war on Ukraine spurred them to join the military organization, has warned that it wouldn’t welcome such a move, and could respond.  As reported by the Associated Press.

“I warmly welcome the requests by Finland and Sweden to join NATO. You are our closest partners,“ Stoltenberg said. “All allies agree on the importance of NATO enlargement. We all agree that we must stand together, and we all agree that this is an historic moment which we must seize.”

“This is a good day at a critical moment for our security,” a beaming Stoltenberg said, as he stood alongside the two envoys, with NATO, Finnish and Swedish flags at their backs.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has demanded that the alliance stop expanding toward Russia’s borders, and several NATO allies, led by the United States and Britain, have signaled that they stand ready to provide security support to Finland and Sweden should he try to provoke or destabilize them during the time it takes to become full members.

The countries will only benefit from NATO’s Article 5 security guarantee — the part of the alliance’s founding treaty that pledges that any attack on one member would be considered an attack of them all — once the membership ratification process is concluded, probably in a few months.

For now though, the application must now be weighed by the 30 member countries. That process is expected to take about two weeks, although Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has expressed reservations about Finland and Sweden joining.

If his objections are overcome, and accession talks go as well as expected, the two could become members within a few months. The process usually takes eight to 12 months, but NATO wants to move quickly given the threat from Russia hanging over the Nordic countries’ heads.

Canada, for example, says that it expects to ratify their accession protocol in just a few days — while in the Baltic region, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas tweeted: “I encourage a rapid accession process. We in Estonia will do our part fast.”

Stoltenberg said that NATO allies “are determined to work through all issues and reach rapid conclusions.”

The fact that the Nordic partners applied together means they won’t be losing time by having to ratify each other’s membership application.

“That Sweden and Finland go hand in hand is a strength. Now the process of joining the talks continues,” Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde told the Swedish news agency TT.

Public opinion in Finland and Sweden has shifted massively in favor of membership since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24.

Finland and Sweden cooperate closely with NATO. They have functioning democracies, well-funded armed forces and contribute to the alliance’s military operations and air policing. Any obstacles they face will merely be of a technical, or possibly political nature.

NATO’s membership process is not formalized, and the steps can vary. But first their requests to join will be examined in a sitting of the North Atlantic Council (NAC) of the 30 member countries, probably at ambassadorial level.

The NAC will decide whether to move toward membership and what steps must be taken to achieve it. This mostly depends on how well aligned the candidate countries are with NATO political, military and legal standards, and whether they contribute to security in the North Atlantic area. This should pose no substantial problem for Finland and Sweden.

Moving forward, during accession talks that could be concluded in just one day once the terms of those negotiations are set, the two will be asked to commit to uphold Article 5 and to meet spending obligations concerning the NATO in-house budget, which runs to around $2.5 billion dollars, split proportionally among what would be 32 member countries.

Finland and Sweden would also be made aware of their role in NATO defense planning, and of any other legal or security obligations they might have, like the vetting of personnel and handling of classified information.

This was long overdue!

Tony

Dear Commons Community,

The New York Times has an article this morning examining the question:  How Often Can You Be Infected with the Coronavirus.  Unfortunately the short answer is “repeatedly.”  Here is an excerpt:

“A virus that shows no signs of disappearing, variants that are adept at dodging the body’s defenses, and waves of infections two, maybe three times a year — this may be the future of Covid-19, some scientists now fear.

The central problem is that the coronavirus has become more adept at reinfecting people. Already, those infected with the first Omicron variant are reporting second infections with the newer versions of the variant — BA.2 or BA2.12.1 in the United States, or BA.4 and BA.5 in South Africa.

Those people may go on to have third or fourth infections, even within this year, researchers said in interviews. And some small fraction may have symptoms that persist for months or years, a condition known as long Covid.

“It seems likely to me that that’s going to sort of be a long-term pattern,” said Juliet Pulliam, an epidemiologist at Stellenbosch University in South Africa.

“The virus is going to keep evolving,” she added. “And there are probably going to be a lot of people getting many, many reinfections throughout their lives.”

It’s difficult to quantify how frequently people are reinfected, in part because many infections are now going unreported. Dr. Pulliam and her colleagues have collected enough data in South Africa to say that the rate is higher with Omicron than seen with previous variants.”

This is not the way it was supposed to be!

The entire article is below.

Tony

————————————-

The New York Times

How Often Can You Be Infected With the Coronavirus?  

By Apoorva Mandavilli

May 17, 2022

A virus that shows no signs of disappearing, variants that are adept at dodging the body’s defenses, and waves of infections two, maybe three times a year — this may be the future of Covid-19, some scientists now fear.

The central problem is that the coronavirus has become more adept at reinfecting people. Already, those infected with the first Omicron variant are reporting second infections with the newer versions of the variant — BA.2 or BA2.12.1 in the United States, or BA.4 and BA.5 in South Africa.

Those people may go on to have third or fourth infections, even within this year, researchers said in interviews. And some small fraction may have symptoms that persist for months or years, a condition known as long Covid.

“It seems likely to me that that’s going to sort of be a long-term pattern,” said Juliet Pulliam, an epidemiologist at Stellenbosch University in South Africa.

“The virus is going to keep evolving,” she added. “And there are probably going to be a lot of people getting many, many reinfections throughout their lives.”

It’s difficult to quantify how frequently people are reinfected, in part because many infections are now going unreported. Dr. Pulliam and her colleagues have collected enough data in South Africa to say that the rate is higher with Omicron than seen with previous variants.

This is not how it was supposed to be. Earlier in the pandemic, experts thought that immunity from vaccination or previous infection would forestall most reinfections.

The Omicron variant dashed those hopes. Unlike previous variants, Omicron and its many descendants seem to have evolved to partially dodge immunity. That leaves everyone — even those who have been vaccinated multiple times — vulnerable to multiple infections.

“If we manage it the way that we manage it now, then most people will get infected with it at least a couple of times a year,” said Kristian Andersen, a virologist at the Scripps Research Institute in San Diego. “I would be very surprised if that’s not how it’s going to play out.”

The new variants have not altered the fundamental usefulness of the Covid vaccines. Most people who have received three or even just two doses will not become sick enough to need medical care if they test positive for the coronavirus. And a booster dose, like a previous bout with the virus, does seem to decrease the chance of reinfection — but not by much.

At the pandemic’s outset, many experts based their expectations of the coronavirus on influenza, the viral foe most familiar to them. They predicted that, as with the flu, there might be one big outbreak each year, most likely in the fall. The way to minimize its spread would be to vaccinate people before its arrival.

Instead, the coronavirus is behaving more like four of its closely related cousins, which circulate and cause colds year round. While studying common-cold coronaviruses, “we saw people with multiple infections within the space of a year,” said Jeffrey Shaman, an epidemiologist at Columbia University in New York.

If reinfection turns out to be the norm, the coronavirus is “not going to simply be this wintertime once-a-year thing,” he said, “and it’s not going to be a mild nuisance in terms of the amount of morbidity and mortality it causes.”

Reinfections with earlier variants, including Delta, did occur but were relatively infrequent. But in September, the pace of reinfections in South Africa seemed to pick up and was markedly high by November, when the Omicron variant was identified, Dr. Pulliam said.

Reinfections in South Africa, as in the United States, may seem even more noticeable because so many have been immunized or infected at least once by now.

“The perception magnifies what’s actually going on biologically,” Dr. Pulliam said. “It’s just that there are more people who are eligible for reinfection.”

The Omicron variant was different enough from Delta, and Delta from earlier versions of the virus, that some reinfections were to be expected. But now, Omicron seems to be evolving new forms that penetrate immune defenses with relatively few changes to its genetic code.

“This is actually for me a bit of a surprise,” said Alex Sigal, a virologist at the Africa Health Research Institute. “I thought we’ll need a kind of brand-new variant to escape from this one. But in fact, it seems like you don’t.”

An infection with Omicron produces a weaker immune response, which seems to wane quickly, compared with infections with previous variants. Although the newer versions of the variant are closely related, they vary enough from an immune perspective that infection with one doesn’t leave much protection against the others — and certainly not after three or four months.

Still, the good news is that most people who are reinfected with new versions of Omicron will not become seriously ill. At least at the moment, the virus has not hit upon a way to fully sidestep the immune system.

“That’s probably as good as it gets for now,” Dr. Sigal said. “The big danger might come when the variant will be completely different.”

Each infection may bring with it the possibility of long Covid, the constellation of symptoms that can persist for months or years. It’s too early to know how often an Omicron infection leads to long Covid, especially in vaccinated people.

To keep up with the evolving virus, other experts said, the Covid vaccines should be updated more quickly, even more quickly than flu vaccines are each year. Even an imperfect match to a new form of the coronavirus will still broaden immunity and offer some protection, they said.

“Every single time we think we’re through this, every single time we think we have the upper hand, the virus pulls a trick on us,” Dr. Andersen said. “The way to get it under control is not, ‘Let’s all get infected a few times a year and then hope for the best.’”