With a new 107-qubit chip called Willow, Google extended the lifetime of quantum information.

Photo: Google Quantum AI.

Dear Commons Community,

In a long-awaited advance, researchers at Google have shown they can suppress errors in the finicky quantum bits critical to the promise of quantum computing. By spreading one “logical” qubit of information across multiple redundant physical qubits, they enabled it to survive longer than the fragile quantum state of any of the physical qubits, they report this week in Nature.   As reported in Science.

“This result is what convinces me that we can actually build a big quantum computer that will work,” says Kevin Satzinger, a physicist with Google Quantum AI. Scott Aaronson, a theoretical computer scientist at the University of Texas at Austin, says the work “very clearly represents an exciting milestone for the field.” But he notes that researchers using other types of qubits are also closing in on practical error correction.

Unlike conventional bits, which can be set only to 0 or 1, a qubit can also be put in a weird 0-and-1 state. That property could enable a full-fledged quantum computer to solve certain problems that would overwhelm the best conventional supercomputer. For example, it could factor huge numbers and crack the encryption algorithms that until recently set the standards for protecting information on the internet. Today’s quantum computers can’t do anything like that, however, because their qubits can’t maintain their delicate two-way states long enough.

Google’s qubits are tiny superconducting circuits that slosh with current. A lower energy state represents 0 and a higher state represents 1. Microwaves can ease the circuit into one state or the other—or both at once. But the quantum state of a superconducting qubit persists for just a fraction of a millisecond before environmental noise scrambles it, causing, for example, 0 and 1 to flip.

Ordinary computers can correct for errors by simply making copies of a bit. The computer takes the reading of the majority of the bits as the true state of the “logical” bit. By comparing pairs of bits, it can even deduce which ones flipped. In quantum mechanics, however, a “no-cloning” theorem forbids the copying of one qubit’s state on to another. And even if cloning were possible, the act of measuring a qubit’s precarious two-way state generally squashes it to be either 0 or 1.

To correct a qubit’s state without copying or measuring it, researchers first need to spread it to other qubits using a subtle quantum link called entanglement. To make a single logical qubit, for example, a qubit in the 0-and-1 state can be entangled with two others so that all three are 0 and, simultaneously all three are 1. Researchers also entangle an “ancillary” qubit with each pair of “data” qubits, to keep tabs on them. By measuring just the ancillas, researchers can detect whether any of data qubits flip without touching them. In principle they can then flip a disturbed data qubit back.

In reality, the simplest error-correcting scheme requires a square grid of data qubits and interleaved ancillas. If the physical qubits are too flaky, the errors just proliferate. But if the physical qubits and their interactions are sufficiently clean, then expanding the array of qubits makes the state of the encoded logical qubit more robust. At some point the logical qubit passes the threshold at which it lasts longer than the state of the physical qubits, explains Michael Newman, a physicist at Google. “Threshold is basically a magic line in the sand where error correction goes from hurting to helping.”

Google has now passed that line. Previously the researchers had shown that as the size of their logical qubit increased, its error rate edged down just slightly. Now, they have improved things so that, as the logical qubit expands from nine to 25 to 49 physical data qubits, the error rate falls by a factor of two at each step. The largest logical qubit has a lifetime of 291 microseconds, 2.4 times longer than any of the physical qubits. “This is indeed a very convincing demonstration of error suppression improving exponentially with the [grid] size,” says Barbara Terhal, a physicist at the Technical University of Delft. “Google is the first team to achieve this.”

That may be open to debate. In December 2023 researchers at Harvard University who use individual atoms as qubits showed they could reduce the error rate in a logical qubit by encoding it on bigger grids of atoms. In 2022, a team at Yale University demonstrated beyond-threshold error correction in an experiment in which the qubits were modes of microwaves in a hollow aluminum cylinder. But Google researchers did something unprecedented, says John Preskill, a theoretical physicist at the California Institute of Technology: They decoded the ancillary qubits repeatedly on the fly, which will be essential for using logical qubits in computation.

Now, they can try basic operations with several logical qubits, says Charina Chou, Google Quantum AI’s chief operating officer. “You can imagine having multiple smaller logical qubits instead of one bigger logical qubit, and testing out those interacting.”

But the team still has a long way to their goal of a 1-million-qubit, fully error-corrected machine, notes Irfan Siddiqi, a physicist at the University of California, Berkeley. And they could hit serious snags along the way. In the new work “the physics is great,” Siddiqi says. “But I wouldn’t buy stock just yet.”

We are getting a little closer to quantum computing.

Tony

Dear Colleagues,

I have a chapter in a book just published in Germany entitled, Bildung und Digitaler Kapitalismus.  The full citaton is:

Picciano, A. (2024). Der bildungsindustrielle Komplex auf dem Weg zur Globalisierung. In V. Dander, N. Grünberger, H. Niesyto, & H. Pohlmann (Hrsg.), Bildung und Digitaler Kapitalismus (S. 77–90). kopaed.  English translation of the chapter:  “The education-industrial complex going global.” English translation of the book:  Education and Digital Capitalism.  An English version of the book is planned for next year.  Here is a summary translated from the book’s website:

The volume is dedicated to the topic of education and digital capitalism, both from a theoretical perspective and with regard to pedagogical fields of action and educational policy arenas. The contributions provide impulses for a critical questioning of technology-driven and commercial developments in the education sector. At the same time, conceptual, strategic and practical transfers to educational goals, values, curricula and forms of work for self-determined and collaborative education and learning processes are demonstrated. A separate section deals with the role of so-called “artificial intelligence” in such contexts.

Colleagues from different specialist disciplines and educational practical contexts are involved in the volume. They reflect the interdisciplinary orientation and the interest in a mutual theory-practice transfer on the topic. The publication is aimed primarily at scientists as well as educational professionals in various fields of activity.

Since 2021, the Education and Digital Capitalism Initiative has been addressing digital-capitalist formation processes from a critical perspective and promoting alternative, sustainable development paths in scientific contexts, educational fields of action and educational policy areas. The editors and numerous authors of this volume  are involved in the initiative.

Tony

Representatives of this year’s winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, Nihon Hidankyo, a grassroots movement of Japanese atomic bombing survivors! Photo courtesy of the Associated Press.

Dear Commons Community,

Terumi Tanaka, a 92-year-old Japanese man who lived through the American atomic bombing of Nagasaki described on Tuesday the agony he witnessed in 1945, including the charred corpses of his loved ones and the ruins of his city, as he accepted this year’s Nobel Peace Prize on behalf of Nihon Hidankyo, a grassroots movement of Japanese atomic bombing survivors who have worked for nearly 70 years to maintain a taboo around the use of nuclear weapons. The weapons have grown exponentially in power and number since being used for the first and only time in warfare by the United States on Nagasaki and Hiroshima in 1945.

The bombings pushed Japan to surrender to the Allies. They killed some 210,000 people by the end of 1945, but the full death toll from radiation is certainly higher.

As the survivors reach the twilight of their lives, they are grappling with the fear that the taboo against using the weapons appears to be weakening. It was a concern expressed by the 92-year-old-survivor, Terumi Tanaka, who delivered the acceptance lecture in Oslo’s City Hall to an audience that included Norway’s royal family.

“The nuclear superpower Russia threatens to use nuclear weapons in its war against Ukraine, and a cabinet member of Israel, in the midst of its unrelenting attacks on Gaza in Palestine, even spoke of the possible use of nuclear arms,” Tanaka said. “I am infinitely saddened and angered that the nuclear taboo threatens to be broken.”

That concern drove the Norwegian Nobel Committee to award this year’s prize to the Japanese organization, though it had honored other nuclear non-proliferation work in the past.

Jørgen Watne Frydnes, the chair of the committee, said in introducing the laureates that it was important to learn from their testimony as the nuclear dangers grow.

“None of the nine countries that possess nuclear weapons — the United States, Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea — appear interested in nuclear disarmament and arms control at present,” he said. “On the contrary, they are modernizing and building up their nuclear arsenals.”

He said the Norwegian Nobel Committee was calling upon the five nuclear weapon states that have signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons — the U.S., Russia, China, France and the U.K. — to take seriously their obligations under the treaty, and said others must ratify it.

“It is naive to believe our civilization can survive a world order in which global security depends on nuclear weapons,” Frydnes said. “The world is not meant to be a prison in which we await collective annihilation.”

In his speech, Tanaka described the attack on Nagasaki on Aug. 9, 1945, three days after the first bomb was dropped on Hiroshima.

He recalled the buzzing sound of a bomber jet followed by a “bright, white light,” and then an intense shock wave. Three days later, he and his mother sought out loved ones who lived near the epicenter.

“Many people who were badly injured or burned, but still alive, were left unattended, with no help whatsoever. I became almost devoid of emotion, somehow closing off my sense of humanity, and simply headed intently for my destination,” he said.

He found the charred body of an aunt, the body of her grandson, his grandfather on the brink of death with severe burns and another aunt who had been severely burned and died just before he arrived. In all, five family members were killed.

He described the efforts of survivors to use their experiences to try to abolish nuclear weapons for the sake of humanity, and to try to receive compensation from the Japanese state, which started the war, for their suffering.

“I hope that the belief that nuclear weapons cannot — and must not — coexist with humanity will take firm hold among citizens of the nuclear weapon states and their allies, and that this will become a force for change in the nuclear policies of their governments,” he said.

Amen!

Tony

Dear Commons Community,

Last week I was invited to give a talk on the history of CUNY at The College of Staten Island. During the question and answer period at the end of the session, I was asked about the future. I speculated on several  issues but my most critical comment referred to the looming decline in the traditional student population particularly in states in the Northeast such as New York.

The latest data in the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education’s 11th edition of the “Knocking at the College Door” report, released yesterday, supports my comments and affirms consistent projections that the country is about to see a peak in high school graduates—between 3.8 million and 3.9 million—but will see a downward slope in the years to come, dropping below 3.4 million in 2041.

The impact will be felt in 38 states, but with some states affected more than others. Eight states will see a decline of 20 percent in the typical graduation class size over the next 15 years. Only the South, including Washington, D.C., will see net increases, according to the report.  New York will see a decline of 27 percent.

The decline is based largely on population trends, but influenced by a sizeable number of students who may have left K-12 schools altogether, and a nationwide graduation rate plateau, researchers say. And the pandemic’s lingering effects on the number of students who are prepared to graduate from high school are already being felt—and could worsen the decline.

“When we look around our region and more broadly around the country, we see workforce shortages in virtually any important employment sector that you can think of—from health care, teaching, nursing, engineering to things that may not be as high on people’s radar, things like diesel technicians,” Patrick Lane, the vice president for policy analysis and research for WICHE, a nonprofit that aims to expand access to higher education, said in a press call. “But if these declining high school graduate numbers translate into even more downward pressure on enrollments, it’ll be hard to meet some of these workforce demands.”

What the data show

Only 12 states, and the District of Columbia, will see an increase in total graduates in 2041, but most will see a decline, adding up to roughly a 10 percent drop nationally (see map above).

Seven states, however, will see declines of more than 20 percent, and five high population states (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, and Pennsylvania) are anticipated to account for three-fourths of the total projected decline between 2023 and 2041

The decline is dependent on two factors, the report states: declining births, which fell sharply starting in 2008 due to the Great Recession and have continued to fall, and the rate of students progressing through school to earn diplomas.

Births have dipped nearly 1 percent each year between 2008 and 2023, with a sharp drop in 2020. Those numbers have since leveled out, but there’s still a consistent decrease, the report shows.

Increasing high school graduation rates would help offset the downturn, but wouldn’t totally halt it, according to the report. The country would have to graduate more than 95 percent of students who will be enrolled in 9th grade in 2037 to match the number of projected graduates in the class of 2025. However, for the last five cohorts, the average graduation rate is closer to 88 percent.

That 88 percent is an increase from 2010, when the average high school graduation rate was 80 percent. But because there will be fewer students in general, the number of graduates is still anticipated to decline.

Without a doubt, It will be a difficult time for many colleges and universities that are enrollment and/or tuition-driven.

Tony

Mark Warner (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

Dear Commons Community,

Senator Mark Warner (Democrat, Virginia) says ‘The Democratic Brand Stinks’ and that his party needs to show it is not out of touch with U.S. voters.  In addition, Democrats face a cultural disconnect with many U.S. voters that’s making it hard for them to get their policy proposals across.  As reported by The Huffington Post.

“I think, frankly, the Democratic brand stinks. I think there are a whole lot of Americans that they don’t listen to your idea if your brand is so off,” he said yesterday at the annual Wall Street Journal CEO Council Summit in Washington.

Warner’s comments came as Democrats continue to ponder the losses in the Nov. 5 elections that will give Republicans control of the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives for the first time since 2019.

The ongoing debate in some Democratic quarters is whether the party needs large, wholesale changes or smaller, incremental ones.

Warner’s remarks put him closer to the former approach, but that also may not be surprising given his background. Warner is a moderate, pro-business Democrat who became wealthy running a telecommunications company; he has won in a state that has only turned reliably Democratic in its presidential vote since 2008.

“I think the Democrats’ disconnect culturally with a lot of Americans is fundamental. I mean, it played out in things like the trans ad,” he said, referring to a Donald Trump campaign ad highlighting Vice President Kamala Harris’ support for the transgender rights of prisoners.

Warner said Democrats’ policy stances “make more sense” than those of Republicans, but that doesn’t matter “if people don’t hear you.”

When he ran for governor in 2001, his campaign included voter outreach efforts using NASCAR, bluegrass bands and a sportsmen’s group, he said.

“That’s not the right message for today, but showing that there’s a cultural connection before you ask people to listen to you on issues, I think, is critically important. I think Democrats [have] got to rethink that,” Warner said.

The three-term senator also cautioned Democrats against complacently thinking a typical midterm rejection of the party in power would see it regain some power on Capitol Hill in 2026. Instead, it should be more pro-business and support regulatory reforms as part of that, he said.

“I’ve got a litany of ideas here, but I think it will take an acknowledgment from the Democrats that the brand itself needs to be changed in a dramatic way,” Warner said.

Democrats should listen to Warner!

Tony

Suspected shooter Luigi Mangione is led from the Blair County Courthouse  in Hollidaysburg, Pennsylvania.  Photo courtesy of USA Today.

Dear Commons Community,

T-shirts, hoodies, coffee mugs and other merchandise referring to the suspected gunman, Luigi Mangione,  who is the prime suspect in the killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson on a Manhattan sidewalk, are popping up on the internet.  In addition, six of the 10 most engaged posts on social media platform X either expressed explicit or implicit support for the killing or denigrated the victim, according to the Network Contagion Research Institute at Rutgers University.

Sellers and other online providers that have expressed  support for Mangione are drawing criticism, if not alarm.  As reported by USA Today.

“Some attention in this case, especially online, has been deeply disturbing, as some have looked to celebrate instead of condemning this killer,” Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro said during a recent news conference.

Among the merchandise is a Christmas ornament with “Deny” “Defend” and “Depose” – the words found on bullet shell casings at the crime scene in New York – and “Free Luigi” stickers. Some platforms are taking down the merchandise, saying it violates their rules.

Etsy, an online platform where the Deny, Defend Depose ornament is listed for sale, did not respond to a request for comment.

Online marketplaces generally prohibit the sale of items that glorify violence, but that prohibition does not extend to all Mangione-related merchandise.

“eBay policies do not prohibit the sale of items with the phrase ‘Deny. Defend. Depose,’” the company said in a statement. “However, items that glorify or incite violence, including those that celebrate the recent murder of UHC CEO Brian Thompson, are prohibited.”

Amazon told USA TODAY it has pulled merchandise using the phrase for violating company guidelines. A search now only yields links to the 2010 book “Delay, Defend, Deny: Why Insurance Companies Don’t Pay Claims and What You Can Do About It.”

Mangione, a 26-year-old Ivy League graduate from a wealthy family was arrested Monday in Altoona, Pennsylvania, after a customer at a McDonald’s spotted him. He faces charges of second-degree murder, two counts of criminal possession of a weapon in the second-degree, criminal possession of a forged instrument and criminal possession of a weapon in the third-degree. He was denied bail Tuesday and is fighting extradition to New York.

Authorities said hand-written pages found on Mangione revealed a possible motive for the shooting. While police officials did not provide details, NYPD Chief of Detectives Joseph Kenny said they revealed “ill will toward corporate America.”

This is a story worth following in the weeks and months ahead!

Tony

Luigi Mangione

Dear Commons Community,

Luigi Mangione, 26, of Towson, Maryland, was arrested yesterday in Altoona, Pennsylvania, where he was charged with two felonies and three misdemeanors before prosecutors filed a murder charge in New York later that night in connection with UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson’s killing.  As reported by NBC News.

Mangione was tracked down in a McDonald’s restaurant in Altoona, Pennsylvania, carrying multiple fake IDs, including one with the name “Marc Rosario,” according to two senior law enforcement officials. A restaurant employee recognized him and called local police, New York Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch said at a news conference.

Investigators are looking into whether Mangione had recently traveled to Altoona by bus from Philadelphia, 240 miles away.

In Pennsylvania, Mangione was charged with carrying firearms without a license, forgery, tampering with records or identification, possessing instruments of crime and providing false identification to police.

Hours later, authorities in New York charged him with one count of murder, three counts of criminal possession of a weapon and one count of possession of a forged instrument, according to online court documents.

Police said last week that the man suspected in the shooting arrived in New York City by bus in late November and had stayed at a Manhattan hostel.

The man who checked into the hostel also used a fake New Jersey ID with the same name, “Marc Rosario,” according to three sources familiar with the investigation.

Investigators uncovered a three-page handwritten document “that speaks to both his motivation and mindset,” Tisch said.

Mangione also carried a ghost gun, which can be assembled at home and difficult to trace.

“As of right now the information we’re getting from Altoona is that the gun appears to be a ghost gun that may have been made on a 3D printer, capable of firing a 9 mm round,” NYPD Chief of Detectives Joseph Kenny said.

Mangione graduated from the University of Pennsylvania in 2020 with an undergraduate degree in computer science and a minor in mathematics, while simultaneously earning a graduate degree in computer and information science, a spokesperson from the university confirmed.

In 2016, he graduated from Gilman School, in Baltimore, where he was the class valedictorian.

“This is deeply distressing news on top of an already awful situation,” Henry P.A. Smyth, Gilman’s headmaster, said in a statement. “Our hearts go out to everyone affected.”

Mangione appeared to have a significant online footprint, with accounts using his name and pictures dating back years.

One of his most active accounts was on the book review platform Goodreads, where he said he had read 65 titles on topics ranging from Elon Musk to dieting.

The account did not show any record of his having read or commented on “Delay, Deny, Defend,” a book about the health insurance industry; police said shell casings found at the scene of the shooting had the words “delay,” “deny” and “depose” written on them.

In January, Mangione reviewed on Goodreads “Industrial Society and Its Future,” also known as the “Unabomber Manifesto” by Ted Kaczynski, which served as the ideological reasoning for Kaczynski’s mail bomb campaign that killed three people and injured 23 others.

“It’s easy to quickly and thoughtless write this off as the manifesto of a lunatic, in order to avoid facing some of the uncomfortable problems it identifies. But it’s simply impossible to ignore how prescient many of his predictions about modern society turned out,” Mangione wrote.

Mangione also quoted a “take” he said he “found online” that read, in part: “When all other forms of communication fail, violence is necessary to survive. You may not like his methods, but to see things from his perspective, it’s not terrorism, it’s war and revolution.”

It also read: “These companies don’t care about you, or your kids, or your grandkids. They have zero qualms about burning down the planet for a buck, so why should we have any qualms about burning them down to survive?”

Elsewhere online, Mangione became significantly more active on Twitter, now known as X, in 2021 after five years of not having posted or reposted content.

He followed and endorsed some of the most influential thinkers in the new conservative-leaning tech space, including neuroscientist and podcaster Andrew Huberman, author and social media critic Jonathan Haidt and writer Tim Urban. His posts focused on what he viewed as failures of modern society, including falling birth rates, the political gender divide and the compulsive use of social media.

A gym and wellness enthusiast, Mangione retweeted posts about masculinity and health, as well as the growing role and potential of artificial intelligence in reshaping society. Content he shared linked declining mental health and procreation to the increased reliance on technology. He also shared content that made fun of and criticized inclusive and “woke” political views.

An apparent fan of food writer Michael Pollan, Mangione shared content that interrogated the consumption of alcohol, psychedelic drugs and even coffee. According to Mangione’s Goodreads account, he was reading Pollan’s 2006 bestseller, “The Omnivore’s Dilemma.”

Mangione also displayed an interest in Japanese culture, posting a list of ideas to increase the birth rate in the country that included advocating against some of its cultural institutions. His cover image on X was a composite that included an image of a Pokémon, an X-ray of a spine with instrumentation in it and a picture that appeared to be of him hiking shirtless in Hawaii. His location on X was set to Honolulu.

Meantime, in New York on Monday, police continued to investigate the death of Thompson, 50, who was gunned down Wednesday morning in front of the New York Hilton Midtown as he walked to an investor conference.

Very interesting background and not typical for a suspect of such a brutal, public murder!

Tony

Rupert Murdoch  (Source: Associated Press)

Dear Commons Community,

A probate commissioner has ruled against Rupert Murdoch’s effort to change his family’s trust to give his son Lachlan control of his media empire and ensure Fox News maintains its conservative editorial slant, according to a sealed document obtained by The New York Times.

In a decision filed on Saturday, a probate commissioner in Nevada concluded that Murdoch, 93, and his son, Lachlan Murdoch, had acted in “bad faith” in their endeavor to amend the irrevocable trust, The New York Times reported yesterday.

The trust divides control of the company equally among four of Rupert Murdoch’s children — Prudence, Elisabeth, Lachlan and James — after he dies. Lachlan Murdoch has been the head of Fox News and News Corp since late last year, when his father stepped down.

The elder Murdoch has argued that to preserve his businesses’ commercial value for all his heirs, the trust must be changed to allow Lachlan Murdoch to maintain Fox News’ conservative bent. James and Elisabeth Murdoch are both known to have less-conservative political views than their father or brother, potentially complicating efforts to ensure that Fox News remains conservative.

In his 96-page opinion, Nevada Probate Commissioner Edmund J. Gorman Jr. of the Second Judicial District Court characterized the plan to change the trust as a “carefully crafted charade” to “permanently cement Lachlan Murdoch’s executive roles” inside the empire “regardless of the impacts such control would have over the companies or the beneficiaries” of the family trust.

Adam Streisand, a lawyer for Rupert Murdoch, told the newspaper that his client and his client’s son were disappointed with the ruling and intended to appeal.

A spokesperson for Prudence, Elisabeth and James Murdoch said in an emailed statement to The Associated Press that they welcome the ruling and hope that their family can “move beyond this litigation to focus on strengthening and rebuilding relationships among all family members.”

Gorman in his conclusion said: “The effort was an attempt to stack the deck in Lachlan Murdoch’s favor after Rupert Murdoch’s passing so that his succession would be immutable. The play might have worked; but an evidentiary hearing, like a showdown in a game of poker, is where gamesmanship collides with the facts and at its conclusion, all the bluffs are called and the cards lie face up.”

He added: “The court, after considering the facts of this case in the light of the law, sees the cards for what they are and concludes this raw deal will not, over the signature of this probate commissioner, prevail.”

It will be interesting to see how this case proceeds.

Tony

An opposition fighter steps on a broken bust of the late Syrian President Hafez Assad in Damascus, Syria, Sunday Dec. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

Dear Commons Community,

The toppling of the Syria’s the Bashar al-Assad regime following more than 50 years of brutal dictatorship was a “victory for the entire Islamic nation,” said Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of the main rebel group, HTS, which was formed out of an al Qaeda affiliate.   Assad’s removal was met with jubilation by Syrians at home and abroad. In Damascus, rebels and civilians were seen ransacking the former dictator’s palaces.

For Iran’s theocratic government, Assad’a removal is terrible news.  As reported by The Associated Press.

Iran’s decades-long strategy of building an “Axis of Resistance” supporting militant groups and proxies around the region is falling apart. First came the crushing Israeli campaign in Gaza triggered by the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel by Iranian-backed Hamas.

That war spawned another in Lebanon, where Israel has mauled Iran’s most powerful ally, Hezbollah, even as Israel has launched successful airstrikes openly inside of Iran for the first time.

And now Iran’s longtime stalwart ally and client in Syria, President Bashar Assad, is gone. As dawn broke Sunday, rebel forces completed a lightning offensive by seizing the ancient capital of Damascus and tearing down symbols of more than 50 years of Assad’s rule over the Mideast crossroads.

Ali Akbar Velayati, a key adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, once called Assad and Syria “the golden ring of the resistance chain in the region.”

“Without the Syrian government, this chain will break and the resistance against Israel and its supporters will be weakened.”

That break in the chain is literal. Syria was an important geographical link that allowed Iran to move weapons and other supplies to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Its loss now further weakens Hezbollah, whose powerful arsenal in southern Lebanon had put Iranian influence directly on the border of its nemesis Israel.

“Iran’s deterrence thinking is really shattered by events in Gaza, by events in Lebanon and definitely by developments in Syria,” a senior diplomat from the United Arab Emirates, Anwar Gargash, said at the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ Manama Dialogue in Bahrain.

Iran still holds the card of its nuclear program. Though it denies that intention, it can use the potential for building a weapons capability to cast a shadow of influence in the region.

“Iran remains a critical regional player,” Gargash said. “We should use this moment to connect and speak about what’s next in my opinion.”

It’s a dramatic reversal in Iran’s regional might

Only a few years ago, the Islamic Republic loomed ascendant across the wider Middle East. Its “Axis of Resistance” was at a zenith.

Hezbollah in Lebanon stood up against Israel. Assad appeared to have weathered an Arab Spring uprising-turned-civil war. Iraqi insurgents killed U.S. troops with Iranian-designed roadside bombs. Yemen’s Houthi rebels fought a Saudi-led coalition to a stalemate.

Syria, at the crossroads, played a vital role.

Early in Syria’s civil war, when it appeared Assad might be overthrown, Iran and its ally, Hezbollah, rushed fighters to support him — in the name of defending Shiite shrines in Syria. Russia later joined with a scorched earth campaign of airstrikes.

The campaign won back territory, even as Syria remained divided into zones of government and insurgent control.

But the speed of Assad’s collapse the past week showed just how reliant he was on support from Iran and Russia — which at the crucial moment didn’t come.

“What was surprising was the Syrian’s army’s failure to counter the offensive, and also the speed of the developments,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told state television late Sunday night. “That was unexpected.”

Russia remains mired in Ukraine years after launching a full-scale invasion there in 2022. For Iran, international sanctions over its advancing nuclear program have ground down its economy.

For Israel, breaking Iran’s regional network has been a major goal, though it is wary over jihadi fighters among the insurgents who toppled Assad. Israel on Sunday moved troops into a demilitarized buffer zone with Syria by the Israel-held Golan Heights in what it called a temporary security measure.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Assad’s fall a “historic day,” saying it was “the direct result of our forceful action against Hezbollah and Iran, Assad’s main supporters.”

Iran’s theocratic rulers long touted their regional network to Iranians as a show of their country’s strength, and its crumbling could raise repercussions at home — though there is no immediate sign of their hold weakening. Anger over the tens of billions of dollars Iran is believed to have spent propping up Assad was a rallying cry in rounds of nationwide anti-government protests that have broken out over recent years, most recently in 2022.

Iran could respond by revving up its nuclear program

The loss of Syria does not mean the end of Iran’s ability to project power in the Mideast. The Houthi rebels continue to launch attacks on Israel and on ships moving through the Red Sea — though the tempo of their attacks has again fallen without a clear explanation from their leadership.

Iran also maintains its nuclear program. While insisting it enriches uranium for peaceful purposes, Western intelligence agencies and the International Atomic Energy Agency say Iran had an organized nuclear weapons program until 2003.

The head of the IAEA also warned Friday that Iran is poised to “quite dramatically” increase its stockpile of near weapons-grade uranium as it has started cascades of advanced centrifuges.

“If Iran would develop nuclear weapons, that would be a great blow to the international nonproliferation regime,” said Thanos Dokos, Greece’s national security adviser, in Bahrain.

There remains a risk of wider attacks in the region, particularly on oil infrastructure. An attack in 2019 initially claimed by the Houthis but later assessed by experts to have been carried out by Iran temporarily halved Saudi Arabia’s production of oil.

“If, as a result of escalation, there are attacks against the energy infrastructure of Iran or Saudi Arabia, that would be bad news for the global oil supply,” Dokos warned.

Whatever happens next, Iran will need to make the decision weighing the problems it faces at both home and abroad.

“Whereas stability is a difficult commodity to export, instability can travel very fast, which is why stability in the Middle East is very important for all of us,” Dokos said.

Tony

Dear Commons Community,

Star outfielder Juan Soto and the New York Mets have agreed to a record $765 million, 15-year contract, according to The Associated Press, believed to be the largest pact in team sports history.

The person spoke on condition of anonymity because the agreement, first reported by the New York Post, was subject to a successful physical.

He would have the right to opt out of the contract after the 2029 season if the Mets don’t at that time raise the contract to $805 million by increasing the average annual value by $4 million annually. Soto will get a $75 million signing bonus, payable upon the deal’s approval by the commissioner’s office.

Soto’s agreement is the largest and longest in Major League Baseball history, topping Shohei Ohtani’s $700 million, 10-year contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers, a deal signed last December. That agreement included $680 million in deferred payments and is valued at just under $46.1 million for baseball’s luxury tax.

While there are no definitive records in sports beyond the United States, Soto’s deal is thought to eclipse those in all other team sports. The deal was reached on the eve of the first full day of baseball’s annual winter meetings.

Soto’s agreement does not include deferred money, the person said, leaving its average annual value at $51 million. Its length tops Fernando Tatis Jr.’s $340 million, 14-year contract with San Diego that runs through 2034.

The New York Yankees’ final offer to retain Soto was for $760 million over 16 years, a second person familiar with the talks said, also on condition of anonymity because that detail was not announced. That offer had a $47.5 million average annual value.

A four-time All-Star at age 26, Soto is the most accomplished free agent at that age since shortstop Alex Rodriguez agreed to a record $252 million, 10-year contract with Texas in December 2000 at age 25.

Soto was 19 when he made his major league debut with Washington in 2018 and helped the Nationals win the World Series the following year, when he hit .282 with 34 homers and 110 RBIs.

He turned down Washington’s $440 million, 15-year offer in 2022 and was traded that August to San Diego. Following the death of Padres owner Peter Seidler, Soto was dealt to the Yankees in December 2023 and helped New York reach the World Series for the first time since 2009.

Soto batted .288 with 41 homers, 109 RBIs and 129 walks, hitting second in the batting order ahead of Aaron Judge to power an offense that led the major leagues with 237 homers. He hit a go-ahead homer in the AL Championship Series opener against Cleveland and a tiebreaking, three-run homer in the 10th inning that won the pennant against the Guardians in Game 5.

Soto has a .285 batting average with 201 homers, 592 RBIs and 769 walks over seven major league seasons.

Congratulations to Soto and the Mets!

Tony