Nate Silver

Dear Commons Community,

Pollster and statistician Nate Silver commented yesterday that polls this year were overestimating Donald Trump’s pull with voters.  Silver pointed to the “huge” poll miss in the New Jersey governor’s race where Democrat Mikie Sherril easily defeated Republican and Trump-backed candidate Jack Ciattarelli.  Here is reporting courtesy of Newsweek.

Polls could be overestimating President Donald Trump’s support following a “huge” miss in the New Jersey gubernatorial race, pollster Nate Silver said.

Why It Matters

Democrats swept Tuesday night’s elections, handily winning the closely watched New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races and securing other victories across the country. These gains have reignited Democratic optimism ahead of the 2026 midterms, as the party pushes to reclaim control of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate.

What To Know

Silver, in his Silver Bulletin newsletter, lamented on polls being “not great,” particularly in New Jersey. A flurry of them released before Election Day showed a tight race between Democratic Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli. Real Clear Politics’ aggregate gave Sherrill only a 3-point advantage.

But Sherrill ended up winning by a much larger margin. She held a 13-point lead over Ciattarelli with 95 percent of the vote in, meaning she performed 10 points stronger than polls predicted. She also outperformed former Vice President Kamala Harris in the state. In November 2024, Harris only carried New Jersey by about 6 points in the presidential election—a disappointing result compared to past Oval Office candidates.

Silver described that as a “huge miss,” noting that it was “more than twice as large as the overestimation of Hillary Clinton in 2016.”

“There’s also, just perhaps, a question of whether the polls are actually overestimating Trump after three presidential elections in a row where they lowballed him,” Silver wrote.

He added that Democrats have a “considerable upside” in the midterms, as they prevailed with “different sorts of Democrats in different sorts of elections all performing strongly.”

Trump’s 2016 victory upended political polling, as surveys heading into Election Day gave former Secretary of State Clinton a comfortable lead. Polls also narrowly overestimated Democrats in 2020 and 2024. Last year, polls gave Harris only a narrow popular vote lead; Real Clear Politics gave her a 0.8-point edge. Trump ended up winning by 1.5 points.

Political analysts have pointed to theories including “shy” Trump voters, as well as the president’s ability to turn out lower- propensity voters, to explain the discrepancies. Silver wrote that Democrats’ strength among highly educated voters, who are generally more likely to vote, could be beneficial in off-year elections.

Polls were closer in Virginia, where Democratic former U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger easily defeated GOP Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. Real Clear Politics gave Spanberger a 10-point lead. She is up nearly 15 points with 96 percent of the vote counted.

What People Are Saying

Journalist Dave Weigel, on X: “Polls underestimated Mikie Sherrill’s strength in #NJGov – and some Dems fretted it was closer after [Governor Phil] Murphy’s 2021 near-death experience. Also, decades since a Dem replaced a two-term Dem. But she’s ending up w biggest Dem margin in 24 years, bigger than Murphy ’17.”

Lakshya Jain of SplitTicket, on X: “A lot of forecasters and pundits went out on a limb to say that Mikie Sherrill struggling was proof of moderates flopping. Not sure those takes have aged particularly well — it was weak reasoning then and looks worse now.”

Sherrill, during her victory speech: “Here in New Jersey, we know that this nation has not ever been, nor will it ever be, ruled by kings. We take oaths to a Constitution, not a king. We’ve chosen liberty, the very foundation of democracy, and we’ve chosen prosperity necessary to create opportunity for all.”

What Happens Next

Every seat in the House of Representatives and one-third of Senate seats are up for reelection. Democrats have expressed optimism about their chances, particularly after the party’s victories on Tuesday, but polls suggest competitive races.

I tend to agree with Silver. I live in New York and was bombarded with media reports of polls showing a tight race in New Jersey.  I was skeptical because I did not think that Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli was wise in connecting himself to Trump.

Tony