Dear Commons Community,

Alexei Navalny, long seen as the most significant political opponent to Russian President Vladimir Putin, died in prison this morning, the federal prison service announced.

Navalny was held in a high security prison in Yamal near the Arctic Circle. He was 47 years old.  As reported by Politico.

“On February 16, 2024, in Penal Colony No. 3, the convict Alexei Navalny felt unwell after a walk, almost immediately losing consciousness, according to representatives of the department,” the statement said. “Medical personnel from the institution arrived promptly, and an ambulance crew was called. All necessary resuscitation measures were carried out, but unfortunately, they did not yield positive results. The emergency medical team pronounced the convict dead. The cause of death is being investigated,” the statement from the Yamal directorate of the federal penitentiary service added.

That sudden collapse is unexpected as he had appeared in good health and spirits only on Thursday. The independent Russian news outlet SOTA published a video of a court session, in which he was joked he was running out of spending money in prison.

For years, Navalny has been the most significant opposition figure in Russia.

With the Kremlin cracking down on all forms of dissent, Navalny was seen as the only person still capable of mobilizing Russians to participate in organized protest against the Kremlin.

In August 2020 he went into a coma after suffering a poison attack with the nerve agent Novichok in what his supporters say was a state-sponsored attempt to kill him.

But Navalny survived and, after receiving treatment in Germany, returned to Russia in 2021.

Upon arrival at Moscow’s Sheremetyevo Airport, he was immediately arrested and had been behind bars ever since

Putin was informed about Navalny’s death, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said.

“As far as we know, the Federal Penitentiary Service (FSIN) is currently handling all the existing rules, conducting investigations, and so on. There’s no need for any specific instructions because there are certain regulations that the FSIN is currently following,” he added.

Peskov said he didn’t have any information about the cause of death. “The medical staff should investigate somehow,” he said.

Navalny’s close ally Leonid Volkov wrote on Telegram said he had no independent confirmation of the death. “As soon as we have any information, we’ll announce it,” he said.

Tony

Dear Commons Community,

OpenAI has unveiled a new system called Sora that creates videos that look as if they were lifted from a Hollywood movie. A demonstration included short videos (see demos below) — created in minutes from short descriptions — of woolly mammoths trotting through a snowy meadow, a Tokyo street scene seemingly shot by a camera swooping across the city, and a fuzzy character gazing at a melting candle.

OpenAI, the company behind the ChatGPT chatbot and the still-image generator DALL-E, is among the many companies racing to improve this kind of instant video generator, including start-ups like Runway and tech giants like Google and Meta, the owner of Facebook and Instagram. The technology could speed the work of seasoned moviemakers, while replacing less experienced digital artists entirely.

It could also become a quick and inexpensive way of creating online disinformation, making it even harder to tell what’s real on the internet.  As reported by The New York Times.

“I am absolutely terrified that this kind of thing will sway a narrowly contested election,” said Oren Etzioni, a professor at the University of Washington who specializes in artificial intelligence. He is also the founder of True Media, a nonprofit working to identify disinformation online in political campaigns.

OpenAI calls its new system Sora, after the Japanese word for sky. The team behind the technology, including the researchers Tim Brooks and Bill Peebles, chose the name because it “evokes the idea of limitless creative potential.”

In an interview, they also said the company was not yet releasing Sora to the public because it was still working to understand the system’s dangers. Instead, OpenAI is sharing the technology with a small group of academics and other outside researchers who will “red team” it, a term for looking for ways it can be misused.

“The intention here is to give a preview of what is on the horizon, so that people can see the capabilities of this technology — and we can get feedback,” Dr. Brooks said.

OpenAI is already tagging videos produced by the system with watermarks that identify them as being generated by A.I. But the company acknowledges that these can be removed. They can also be difficult to spot. 

The system is an example of generative A.I., which can instantly create text, images and sounds. Like other generative A.I. technologies, OpenAI’s system learns by analyzing digital data — in this case, videos and captions describing what those videos contain.

OpenAI declined to say how many videos the system learned from or where they came from, except to say the training included both publicly available videos and videos that were licensed from copyright holders. The company says little about the data used to train its technologies, most likely because it wants to maintain an advantage over competitors — and has been sued multiple times for using copyrighted material.(The New York Times sued OpenAI and its partner, Microsoft, in December, claiming copyright infringement of news content related to A.I. systems.)

Very impressive technology.  While I would like to think it can be controlled.  I don’t think it will!

Tony

This video’s A.I. prompt: “Several giant wooly mammoths approach treading through a snowy meadow, their long wooly fur lightly blows in the wind as they walk, snow covered trees and dramatic snow capped mountains in the distance, mid afternoon light with wispy clouds and a sun high in the distance creates a warm glow, the low camera view is stunning capturing the large furry mammal with beautiful photography, depth of field.”CreditCredit…Video by OpenAI

This video’s A.I. prompt: “Beautiful, snowy Tokyo city is bustling. The camera moves through the bustling city street, following several people enjoying the beautiful snowy weather and shopping at nearby stalls. Gorgeous sakura petals are flying through the wind along with snowflakes.”CreditCredit…Video by OpenAI

This video’s A.I. prompt: “Animated scene features a close-up of a short fluffy monster kneeling beside a melting red candle. The art style is 3D and realistic, with a focus on lighting and texture. The mood of the painting is one of wonder and curiosity, as the monster gazes at the flame with wide eyes and open mouth. Its pose and expression convey a sense of innocence and playfulness, as if it is exploring the world around it for the first time. The use of warm colors and dramatic lighting further enhances the cozy atmosphere of the image.”CreditCredit…Video by OpenAI

Dear Commons Community,

The Rockefeller Institute of Government on Wednesday announced its study on the State University of New York’s economic impact, which reached $31 billion in 2020, up eight percent from 2016. SUNY has a measurable impact in 91% of all industry sectors across the state.

According to the report, “The Economic Impact of the State University of New York,” based on the 2020-2021 academic year, SUNY’s impact derives from its role as one of the state’s largest employers, as well as its preeminent role as a hub for research and commercialization. SUNY supports 157,600 jobs, 1.6% of the state’s workforce. If SUNY were a private company, it would rank among the 10 largest employers in all of New York.

The study updates the Rockefeller Institute’s estimates on SUNY’s economic activity and its return on the state’s investment. For every $1 invested, SUNY generates $8.67 for the state.

Further, SUNY plays a critical role in developing talent across New York. Thirty-four percent of the workers in the state with a postsecondary degree earned a credential from SUNY, and alumni of SUNY who work in New York State earned an estimated $127.3 billion in 2020, 17% of all payroll earned by New York employees that year.

“As shown in prior reports from our research team, the SUNY system is a key driver of New York’s economic engine,” said Rockefeller Institute President Bob Megna. “This new economic-impact analysis quantifies the breadth and depth of SUNY’s contributions across virtually all industries, in research, and as one of the state’s largest employers, and makes clear the value of investments in the state’s public higher education system.”

Other key findings from the report include:

• Research and development activities system-wide reached more than $1.4 billion in 2020, an increase of more than 22% from just five years prior.
• SUNY employees and students generate $2.4 billion of demand in the real estate industry across the state, supporting almost 12,600 jobs.
• SUNY employees and students spend $736 million in restaurants, supporting an additional 7,117 jobs.
• The SUNY community generates demand at and supports employment in retail stores, doctor’s offices, wholesale traders, and hundreds of other industries across New York.
• SUNY campuses reported a record $1.42 billion in research expenditures, or 19.7% of New York’s total academic R&D across all institutions, tripling its activity level of 20 years.
• 35% of all college students enrolled in New York were attending SUNY institutions.
• One year after graduation, 80% of SUNY grads stay in New York.

The Rockefeller Institute of Government study breaks down SUNY’s economic impact for each of the state’s regions.

Congratulations SUNY for proving the economic benefits of public higher education.

Tony

Dear Commons Community,

Aneesh Raman, a work force expert at LinkedIn, and Maria Flynn, the president of the nonprofit Jobs for the Future, in  a guest essay yesterday,  argued that the advent of generative artificial intelligence marks a historic turning point for our economy and our society, one as important as the rise of the knowledge economy. They argue that the premium placed on technical skills will fade, leaving us with work that’s anchored more in our uniquely human abilities.

“The early signals of what A.I. can do should compel us to think differently about ourselves as a species. Our abilities to effectively communicate, develop empathy and think critically have allowed humans to collaborate, innovate and adapt for millenniums. Those skills are ones we all possess and can improve, yet they have never been properly valued in our economy or prioritized in our education and training,” they write. “That needs to change.”

They conclude that maybe there’s a future for humanities studies in the age of AI.

Below is the entire essay.

Tony

—————————————————————————————————————————-

The New York Times

When Your Technical Skills Are Eclipsed, Your Humanity Will Matter More Than Ever

Feb. 14, 2024

By Aneesh Raman and Maria Flynn

There have been just a handful of moments over the centuries when we have experienced a huge shift in the skills our economy values most. We are entering one such moment now. Technical and data skills that have been highly sought after for decades appear to be among the most exposed to advances in artificial intelligence. But other skills, particularly the people skills that we have long undervalued as “soft,” will very likely remain the most durable. That is a hopeful sign that A.I. could usher in a world of work that is anchored more, not less, around human ability.

A moment like this compels us to think differently about how we are training our workers, especially the heavy premium we have placed on skills like coding and data analysis that continue to reshape the fields of higher education and worker training. The early signals of what A.I. can do should compel us to think differently about ourselves as a species. Our abilities to effectively communicate, develop empathy and think critically have allowed humans to collaborate, innovate and adapt for millenniums. Those skills are ones we all possess and can improve, yet they have never been properly valued in our economy or prioritized in our education and training. That needs to change.

In today’s knowledge economy, many students are focused on gaining technical skills because those skills are seen as the most competitive when it comes to getting a good job. And for good reason. For decades, we have viewed those jobs as “future-proof” given the growth of technology companies and the fact that engineering majors land the highest-paying jobs.

The number of students seeking four-year degrees in computer science and information technology shot up 41 percent between the spring of 2018 and the spring of 2023, while the number of humanities majors plummeted. Workers who didn’t go to college and those who needed additional skills and wanted to take advantage of a lucrative job boom flocked to dozens of coding boot camps and online technical programs.

Now comes the realization of the power of generative A.I., with its vast capabilities in skills like writing, programming and translation (Microsoft, which owns LinkedIn, is a major investor in the technology). LinkedIn researchers recently looked at which skills any given job requires and then identified over 500 likely to be affected by generative A.I. technologies. They then estimated that 96 percent of a software engineer’s current skills — mainly proficiency in programming languages — can eventually be replicated by A.I. Skills associated with jobs like legal associates and finance officers will also be highly exposed.

In fact, given the broad impact A.I. is set to have, it is quite likely to affect all of our work to some degree or another.

We believe there will be engineers in the future, but they will most likely spend less time coding and more time on tasks like collaboration and communication. We also believe that there will be new categories of jobs that emerge as a result of A.I.’s capabilities — just like we’ve seen in past moments of technological advancement — and that those jobs will probably be anchored increasingly around people skills.

Circling around this research is the big question emerging across so many conversations about A.I. and work, namely: What are our core capabilities as humans?

If we answer that question from a place of fear about what’s left for people in the age of A.I., we can end up conceding a diminished view of human capability. Instead, it’s critical for us all to start from a place that imagines what’s possible for humans in the age of A.I. When you do that, you find yourself focusing quickly on people skills that allow us to collaborate and innovate in ways technology can amplify but never replace. And you find yourself — whatever the role or career stage you’re in — with agency to better manage this moment of historic change.

Communication is already the most in-demand skill across jobs on LinkedIn today. Even experts in A.I. are observing that the skills we need to work well with A.I. systems, such as prompting, are similar to the skills we need to communicate and reason effectively with other people.

Over 70 percent of executives at LinkedIn last year said soft skills were more important to their organizations than highly technical A.I. skills. And a recent Jobs for the Future survey found that 78 percent of the 10 top-employing occupations classify uniquely human skills and tasks as “important” or “very important.” These are skills like building interpersonal relationships, negotiating between parties and guiding and motivating teams.

Now is the time for leaders, across sectors, to develop new ways for students to learn that are more directly, and more dynamically, tied to where our economy is going, not where it has been. Critically, that involves bringing the same level of rigor to training around people skills that we have brought to technical skills.

Colleges and universities have a critical role to play. Over the past few decades, we have seen a prioritization of science and engineering, often at the expense of the humanities. That calibration will need to be reconsidered.

Those not pursuing a four-year degree should look for those training providers that have long emphasized people skills and are invested in social capital development.

Employers will need to be educators, not just around A.I. tools but also on people skills and people-to-people collaboration. Major employers like Walmart and American Airlines are already exploring ways to put A.I. in the hands of employees so they can spend less time on routine tasks and more time on personal engagement with customers.

Ultimately, for our society, this comes down to whether we believe in the potential of humans with as much conviction as we believe in the potential of A.I. If we do, it is entirely possible to build a world of work that is not only more human but is also a place where all people are valued for the unique skills they have, enabling us to deliver new levels of human achievement across so many areas that affect all of our lives, from health care to transportation to education. Along the way, we could meaningfully increase equity in our economy, in part by addressing the persistent gender gap that exists when we undervalue skills that women bring to work at a higher percentage than men.

Almost anticipating this exact moment a few years ago, Minouche Shafik, who is now the president of Columbia University, said: “In the past, jobs were about muscles. Now they’re about brains, but in the future, they’ll be about the heart.”

The knowledge economy that we have lived in for decades emerged out of a goods economy that we lived in for millenniums, fueled by agriculture and manufacturing. Today, the knowledge economy is giving way to a relationship economy, where people skills and social abilities are going to become even more core to success than ever before. That possibility is not just cause for new thinking when it comes to work force training. It is also cause for greater imagination when it comes to what is possible for us as humans, not simply as individuals and organizations but as a species.

                                 Stan Altman.    Photographer:  Dustin Chambers for Bloomberg.

Dear Commons Community,

Stan Altman, the CEO of ChatGPT-maker OpenAI, said Tuesday that the dangers that keep him awake at night regarding artificial intelligence are the “very subtle societal misalignments” that could make the systems wreak havoc.  OpenAI is one of the leaders in the AI field.

Sam Altman, speaking at the World Governments Summit in Dubai via a video call, reiterated his call for a body like the International Atomic Energy Agency to be created to oversee AI that’s likely advancing faster than the world expects.  As reported by The Associated Press.

“There’s some things in there that are easy to imagine where things really go wrong. And I’m not that interested in the killer robots walking on the street direction of things going wrong,” Altman said. “I’m much more interested in the very subtle societal misalignments where we just have these systems out in society and through no particular ill intention, things just go horribly wrong.”

However, Altman stressed that the AI industry, like OpenAI, shouldn’t be in the driver’s seat when it comes to making regulations governing the industry.

“We’re still in the stage of a lot of discussion. So there’s you know, everybody in the world is having a conference. Everyone’s got an idea, a policy paper, and that’s OK,” Altman said. “I think we’re still at a time where debate is needed and healthy, but at some point in the next few years, I think we have to move towards an action plan with real buy-in around the world.”

The UAE, an autocratic federation of seven hereditarily ruled sheikhdoms, has signs of that risk. Speech remains tightly controlled. Those restrictions affect the flow of accurate information — the same details AI programs like ChatGPT rely on as machine-learning systems to provide their answers for users.

The Emirates also has the Abu Dhabi firm G42, overseen by the country’s powerful national security adviser. G42 has what experts suggest is the world’s leading Arabic-language artificial intelligence model. The company has faced spying allegations for its ties to a mobile phone app identified as spyware. It has also faced claims it could have gathered genetic material secretly from Americans for the Chinese government.

G42 has said it would cut ties to Chinese suppliers over American concerns. However, the discussion with Altman, moderated by the UAE’s Minister of State for Artificial Intelligence Omar al-Olama, touched on none of the local concerns.

For his part, Altman said he was heartened to see that schools, where teachers feared students would use AI to write papers, now embrace the technology as crucial for the future. But he added that AI remains in its infancy.

“I think the reason is the current technology that we have is like … that very first cellphone with a black-and-white screen,” Altman said. “So give us some time. But I will say I think in a few more years it’ll be much better than it is now. And in a decade it should be pretty remarkable.”

We need to listen to Mr. Altman for “better” or worse!

Tony

Courtesy of MSNBC.

Dear Commons Community,

Democrat Tom Suozzi is going back to Congress after he won the special election in New York’s 3rd District yesterday to replace former disgraced GOP Rep. George Santos,

Suozzi’s victory over Republican Mazi Pilip cuts Republicans’ already razor-thin House majority by one seat, making legislating even more difficult moving forward. And it could provide a guide for Democrats competing in similar competitive districts this fall, especially when it comes to navigating their political vulnerability on immigration and border security.

The Democrat may seek to be sworn into Congress as early as tomorrow, according to a source with knowledge of his thinking. If not, he may have to wait until the end of the month after the House takes an extended recess for President’s Day.

At his victory party, Suozzi thanked a long list of supporters and aides and ran through some of the attacks he faced in the hard-fought contest.  As reported by NBC News.

“Despite all the lies about Tom Suozzi and the Squad, about Tom Suozzi being the godfather of the migrant crisis, about ‘Sanctuary Suozzi,’ despite the dirty tricks, despite the vaunted Nassau County Republican machine: We won,” he said to applause.

Suozzi may have been helped by a winter storm that walloped the New York City area yesterday, as Democrats built up an early advantage in early votes. But his victory also came amid some built-in advantages in name ID and fundraising as the district’s former congressman and as Democrats outspent Republicans on the airwaves.

“He has the values that I have — to get things done but to take into consideration the people who are in need. And he represents the majority of the middle class,” said Jeanne DeChiaro, who voted for Suozzi in Syosset and said her biggest issues were abortion, immigration, the economy and “the ability to be bipartisan.”

Though President Joe Biden won the Long Island-based district by 8 percentage points, according to calculations from Daily Kos Elections, Republicans have made gains in the area since then. In 2022, Santos won this open seat by 8 points, but he was expelled from Congress in December following his indictment on federal charges and a damning Ethics Committee report that alleged he broke multiple federal laws and misused campaign funds. (Santos has pleaded not guilty and is set to go to trial in September.)

The result is a blow to the Nassau County GOP, which has been energized by a string of victories in recent years amid a backlash to Democratic-run New York City and Albany. Before Santos was ousted, Republicans represented every congressional district on Long Island.

It’s also bad news for Republicans in the House who have struggled to pass even partisan bills. Once Suozzi is sworn in, they’ll face even greater pressure to compromise with Democrats and can only lose two votes to advance GOP legislation, assuming all members are present. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., celebrated Suozzi’s win and the shrinking GOP majority on X, writing: “One down. Four to go.”

The National Republican Congressional Committee called the race “an uphill battle” from the outset and called Pilip a “fighter with a bright future within the Republican Party.”

“Joe Biden won this district by 8 points, Democrats outspent Republicans two-to-one, and our Democrat opponent spent decades representing these New Yorkers — yet it was still a dogfight. Republicans still have multiple pathways to grow our majority in November,” NRCC Chairman Richard Hudson, R-N.C., said in a statement.

While TV ads in the race focused largely on immigration and abortion, House Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC, launched an ad in recent days tying Pilip to Santos, describing her as an “ethical nightmare” and raising questions about her finances. Her campaign spokesman, Brian Devine, told The New York Times that she filed an amended financial disclosure report because “a preliminary draft … was inadvertently submitted prior to final review by Mazi’s financial team.”

Santos’ expulsion set off the sprint to the special election, and Democrats coalesced around Suozzi, who represented the district from 2017 to 2023 after having been the Nassau County executive and mayor of Glen Cove.

Suozzi did not run for re-election last year, instead making an unsuccessful run for governor in a bitter primary race against Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul. Suozzi met with Hochul before his nomination for Tuesday’s contest; he apologized, and Hochul pressed him about his path to victory and his support for abortion rights, according to a source familiar with the meeting.

In the short special election, Suozzi faced a barrage of attack ads on immigration, which Republicans saw as a salient issue for voters watching an influx of migrants hit neighboring New York City. He quickly answered with his own TV ads and stressed his support for a doomed bipartisan border deal, which Pilip opposed.

Democrats also leveraged the issue of abortion, with outside groups launching ads featuring video of Pilip describing herself as “pro-life.” While Pilip said she would not support a national abortion ban, she declined to say whether she would vote to protect abortion rights at the federal level.

Suozzi also stressed his staunch support for Israel in the district, which has a sizable Jewish population, amid its ongoing war with Hamas. Pilip also emphasized her own Jewish faith and her service in the Israel Defense Forces after she migrated to the country from Ethiopia as a child.

Suozzi and Pilip could face off again in November. Both have committed to run for the full term. But the district’s lines could change in an ongoing redistricting process. The state’s redistricting commission has until Feb. 28 to draw a new congressional map, and the state GOP has vowed to challenge it if the party views it as a partisan gerrymander.

Congratulations, Representative Suozzi!

Tony

Dear Commons Community,

A $7 million Super Bowl ad touting Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s run for president prompted an apology from the independent candidate. (see  video below.)

The ad ― produced by American Values 2024, a super political action committee backing Kennedy ― borrowed heavily from a 1960 spot for his uncle John F. Kennedy’s successful presidential bid. It uses the same jingle and co-opts the vintage video. As reported by The Huffington Post.

RFK Jr. shared the ad on X, the former Twitter, but hours later added an apology to his family after his cousin, Bobby Shriver, the son of Eunice Kennedy Shriver, slammed the ad. “She would be appalled by his deadly health care views,” Bobby Shriver wrote of his mother. “Respect for science, vaccines, & health care equity were in her DNA.”

Nevertheless, the ad not only remained on RFK Jr.’s X account, but was pinned to the top of his profile as of yesterday morning.

“I’m so sorry if the Super Bowl advertisement caused anyone in my family pain,” Kennedy wrote. “The ad was created and aired by the American Values Super PAC without any involvement or approval from my campaign. FEC rules prohibit Super PACs from consulting with me or my staff. I love you all. God bless you.”

Kennedy’s press secretary, Stefanie Spear, sang a different tune regarding the big-game advertising, which American Values co-founder Tony Lyons estimated to have cost $7 million, according to CBS News.

“We are pleasantly surprised and grateful to the American Values PAC for running an ad during the Super Bowl where more than 100 million Americans got to see that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is running as an independent candidate for president of the United States,” Spear told CBS News.

Robert Shrum, a speechwriter for the late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-Mass.), said on X that the ad was “straight out plagiarism.” He added: “To quote Lloyd Bentsen with a slight amendment, ‘Bobby, you’re no John Kennedy.’ Instead you are a Trump ally.”

Kennedy, whose anti-vax views align with those of many conservatives, was grabbing 14% of the general vote in a recent poll that imagined a five-person ballot in November. That positions him as a potential spoiler for the expected main candidates, President Joe Biden and his criminally indicted rival, former President Donald Trump.

I saw the ad during the Super Bowl and thought it was ridiculous!

Tony

Tom Suozzi and Mazi Pilip.  Courtesy of The Epoch Times

Dear Common Community,

The special election in New York’s Third Congressional District today will determine who will replace George Santos, the former disgraced Republican congressman and serial liar, for the remainder of the year. But the political ramifications may be felt far beyond the borders of Nassau County and Queens, with lessons for both parties in November.  Here is an analysis courtesy of Lisa Lerer of The New York Times.

The contest pits Mazi Pilip, a little-known Nassau County legislator running as a Republican, against Tom Suozzi, a Democrat who previously held the seat for three terms before leaving to run for governor. The race is expected to be tight — with the last-minute wild card of a major snowstorm today.

Nick Fandos, who has been closely following the race, reported that the powerful Nassau County Republican machine is closely managing Pilip’s campaign. Her election filings do not show a single person on her campaign payroll, an extraordinarily unusual arrangement.

Here’s a guide to the themes dominating the race, and how they could play out in the 2024 general election.

Immigration

Republicans have embraced immigration as their central issue, hoping to capitalize on suburban voter unease about the wave of migrants arriving in cities like New York. Pilip, who was born in Ethiopia before immigrating to Israel and then the United States, has campaigned in front of migrant shelters in Queens, accusing her opponent and President Biden of bringing “the border crisis to our front door.” Republicans have spent millions blanketing the airwaves with ads casting Suozzi as an “open-border radical.”

Suozzi, for his part, has refused to cede the issue, making a tougher stance on immigration a centerpiece of his campaign. He has called on Biden to lock down the border, and said a group of migrant men charged with assaulting police officers should be deported. He also criticized Pilip for opposing a bipartisan Senate border bill.

If Suozzi’s strategy succeeds, his approach could become a new immigration playbook for other Democrats running in swing suburban districts.

Abortion

Since Roe v. Wade was overturned, Democrats have leaned into abortion rights as an energizing force for their coalition. The $13 million they’ve spent on advertising in the race — twice as much as Republicans — has characterized Pilip as an ardent opponent of abortion rights.

Pilip, an Orthodox Jew and the mother of seven children, describes herself as “pro-life.” In the first and only debate of the race last Thursday, she said she would not support a national abortion ban. But she declined to say what abortion restrictions she would support, and attacked Suozzi for pressing her on specifics, accusing him of telling a woman what she believes.

“I went through pregnancy. I suffered,” she said. “It is a personal choice. Every woman should have that choice. I’m not going to tell her what to do.”

If Pilip wins, her approach could become a popular one with Republican candidates, who have struggled to find a voter-friendly stance on abortion since the fall of Roe.

The path to November

Democratic and Republican leaders will be watching tomorrow’s special election to see how their messaging strategies might play out this fall, on a pivotal battlefield.

Control of the House in 2025 may hinge on a handful of suburban areas around New York City like the Third District, which stretches from the outskirts of Queens to the suburbs of Nassau County. Republicans flipped four of those districts in 2022, which helped them win a narrow majority in the House.

At the time, Hakeem Jeffries, the Brooklyn congressman who would soon become the top Democrat in the House, predicted those gains would be short-lived. He described the seats as ones “Republicans are renting, not owning.”

The results of this election will indeed be followed closely!

Tony

Dear Commons Community,

As millions of viewers prepared to watch the Supebowl yesterday,  Donald Trump was on social media issuing an appeal to Taylor Swift , urging her not to endorse President Joe Biden in the 2024 race for the White House.

Trump in his post on Truth Social took credit for the Music Modernization Act, legislation he signed while in office addressing copyright law and streaming rights.

“Joe Biden didn’t do anything for Taylor, and never will,” Trump shared, adding there’s “no way” she could endorse Biden and “be disloyal to the man who made her so much money.”

“Besides that, I like her boyfriend, Travis, even though he may be a Liberal, and probably can’t stand me!” Trump added, referencing Kansas City Chiefs player Travis Kelce, who is competing in the Super Bowl on Sunday.  As reported by USA Today.

While Kelce has drawn criticism from some conservative figures, he has not been outspoken about politics.

Swift endorsed Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2020 presidential election, and she has long been critical of Trump and other Republican lawmakers. Swift has also said she regrets not getting involved in the 2016 presidential election, when Trump won his first term.

Swift in her 2020 documentary “Miss Americana” also knocked Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., calling her “Trump in a wig.”

The then-president responded to Swift at the time, joking that he liked her music “about 25% less.”

Swift has not offered an endorsement in the 2024 presidential election, but the New York Times reported last month that Biden’s campaign is trying to figure out how to lock down Swift’s support in the coming months.

The star also has a history with drawing voters to the polls. Last fall, Swift helped get more than 30,000 people registered to vote in a single day.

By the way, the Kansas City Chiefs won the Superbowl 25-22 over the San Francisco 49s in overtime.

Tony