Tom Suozzi and Mazi Pilip. Courtesy of The Epoch Times
Dear Common Community,
The special election in New York’s Third Congressional District today will determine who will replace George Santos, the former disgraced Republican congressman and serial liar, for the remainder of the year. But the political ramifications may be felt far beyond the borders of Nassau County and Queens, with lessons for both parties in November. Here is an analysis courtesy of of The New York Times.
The contest pits Mazi Pilip, a little-known Nassau County legislator running as a Republican, against Tom Suozzi, a Democrat who previously held the seat for three terms before leaving to run for governor. The race is expected to be tight — with the last-minute wild card of a major snowstorm today.
Nick Fandos, who has been closely following the race, reported that the powerful Nassau County Republican machine is closely managing Pilip’s campaign. Her election filings do not show a single person on her campaign payroll, an extraordinarily unusual arrangement.
Here’s a guide to the themes dominating the race, and how they could play out in the 2024 general election.
Immigration
Republicans have embraced immigration as their central issue, hoping to capitalize on suburban voter unease about the wave of migrants arriving in cities like New York. Pilip, who was born in Ethiopia before immigrating to Israel and then the United States, has campaigned in front of migrant shelters in Queens, accusing her opponent and President Biden of bringing “the border crisis to our front door.” Republicans have spent millions blanketing the airwaves with ads casting Suozzi as an “open-border radical.”
Suozzi, for his part, has refused to cede the issue, making a tougher stance on immigration a centerpiece of his campaign. He has called on Biden to lock down the border, and said a group of migrant men charged with assaulting police officers should be deported. He also criticized Pilip for opposing a bipartisan Senate border bill.
If Suozzi’s strategy succeeds, his approach could become a new immigration playbook for other Democrats running in swing suburban districts.
Abortion
Since Roe v. Wade was overturned, Democrats have leaned into abortion rights as an energizing force for their coalition. The $13 million they’ve spent on advertising in the race — twice as much as Republicans — has characterized Pilip as an ardent opponent of abortion rights.
Pilip, an Orthodox Jew and the mother of seven children, describes herself as “pro-life.” In the first and only debate of the race last Thursday, she said she would not support a national abortion ban. But she declined to say what abortion restrictions she would support, and attacked Suozzi for pressing her on specifics, accusing him of telling a woman what she believes.
“I went through pregnancy. I suffered,” she said. “It is a personal choice. Every woman should have that choice. I’m not going to tell her what to do.”
If Pilip wins, her approach could become a popular one with Republican candidates, who have struggled to find a voter-friendly stance on abortion since the fall of Roe.
The path to November
Democratic and Republican leaders will be watching tomorrow’s special election to see how their messaging strategies might play out this fall, on a pivotal battlefield.
Control of the House in 2025 may hinge on a handful of suburban areas around New York City like the Third District, which stretches from the outskirts of Queens to the suburbs of Nassau County. Republicans flipped four of those districts in 2022, which helped them win a narrow majority in the House.
At the time, Hakeem Jeffries, the Brooklyn congressman who would soon become the top Democrat in the House, predicted those gains would be short-lived. He described the seats as ones “Republicans are renting, not owning.”
The results of this election will indeed be followed closely!
Tony
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