New York City Has 186,000 Fewer Children Than It Did in 2020

Dear Commons Community,

New York City has significantly fewer children and teenagers than it did before the coronavirus pandemic spurred an exodus of families to the suburbs and other states, according to an analysis of new census data released yesterday.

The number of New Yorkers under the age of 20 fell by 9 percent — or more than 186,000 people — to 1.8 million in 2023 from just three years earlier, according to Social Explorer, a data research company that analyzed the census estimates.  As reported by The New York Times.

It was the biggest drop in at least a decade in the city’s under-20 population. The decrease could potentially affect the city’s education policies and public school system, which is the largest in the United States, and could eventually help shape the city’s work force and economy. That age group has been steadily shrinking in the city since at least 2010 even as older age groups have been growing.

Though the census estimates do not offer an explanation for the demographic changes, many families with children, including many Black families, have moved out of the city in recent years because of a shortage of affordable housing, a shift to work-from-home policies, concerns about school quality and crime and a desire for more parks and open spaces, among other reasons.

All five boroughs lost residents under the age of 20, with Brooklyn losing 66,000 younger residents; Queens losing 53,000; the Bronx 41,000; Manhattan 22,000; and Staten Island nearly 4,000.

The suburbs surrounding New York City also lost younger residents, but those drops were more modest. Long Island lost nearly 18,000 residents under age 20, while New Jersey suburbs lost nearly 40,000 younger residents.

Andrew A. Beveridge, a former sociology professor at Queens College and president of Social Explorer, said the decline in younger residents in New York City is likely to be offset in part by the influx of more than 200,000 migrants since the spring of 2022, which includes many families with children.

Still, he added, the city is facing a major demographic shift that could have far-reaching consequences, including fewer students in the schools. “It means that people in New York are less likely to be families with kids and that has all sorts of implications,” he said.

The drop was steepest among the city’s youngest residents, with the number of children under the age of 5 falling by 17 percent — or more than 92,000 people — to 445,000 from more than 537,000 in 2020, according to the analysis.

City planning officials said that the decrease in the under-5 population most likely reflected a decline in the number of births in the city and the country since the pandemic.

The New York City public school system has shrunk to roughly 915,000 students from 1.1 million a decade ago. In the 2021-22 school year alone, nearly 58,000 students left the system to attend schools outside the city, according to Education Department data — by far the highest number in more than a decade.

This is terrible news for the Big Apple!

Tony

 

Video: Podcast with Alfred Essa featuring New Book Edited by Patsy Moskal, Chuck Dziuban and myself!

Dear Commons Community,

Patsy Moskal, Chuck Dziuban and I were interviewed on Alfred Essa’s podcast earlier this month. We discussed our recently published book, Data Analytics and Adaptive Learning:  Research Perspectives (Routledge/Taylor & Francis, 2024). In addition to the main theme of the book, we focused on issues of equity, assessments and research. The podcast is now available and can be seen in its entirety below:

Feedback welcome!

Tony

Watching the Biden – Trump Presidential Debate Tonight

Dear Commons Community,

The moment has been four years in the making: President Biden and former President Donald J. Trump on a debate stage, another flashpoint in their long-running hostilities.

The debate, hosted by CNN at its Atlanta studios starting at 9 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time tonight, will occur without an in-person audience and before Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden formally accept their parties’ nominations this summer, in a dramatic departure from the past.

CNN will broadcast or stream the debate on all its platforms, including its flagship cable channel, as well as CNN International, CNN en Español and CNN Max. The network also plans to stream the debate on CNN.com. You will not have to log in or be a subscriber to watch the stream.

CNN is also sharing its feed with other broadcast and cable news networks so that they could simulcast the debate. That means you can also watch it on Fox News, ABC News, NBC News and elsewhere.

The moderators will be Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, who are fixtures on the anchor desk at CNN and the hosts of the network’s Sunday political talk show, “State of the Union.” Mr. Tapper is CNN’s chief Washington correspondent, and Ms. Bash is the network’s chief political correspondent.

On with the show!

Tony

Republican Strategist Karl Rove Sounds an Alarm for Trump – ‘Look at The Evidence’

Karl Rove

Dear Commons Community,

Longtime Republican strategist Karl Rove delivered bad news to Donald Trump and his supporters over the weekend.

“Take a look at the evidence,” he said on Fox News on Saturday when asked if polls have shifted since the former president’s conviction last month on 34 charges in the Stormy Daniels hush money case.

He said polls show Trump losing ground to President Joe Biden since the conviction. As a result, Trump’s modest lead over Biden has been shrinking on RealClearPolitics and other poll aggregators, and Rove predicted that Trump’s lead may be about to vanish altogether.

“We’re likely to see that lead dissipate because the most recent polls have had Biden ahead,” Rove said in comments posted on Mediaite, using his white board to show poll results since the conviction.

Much of that shift is from a core group of voters who may ultimately decide the election.

“The movement is among independents,” said Rove, who helped lead George W. Bush’s two presidential campaigns. “And they have moved, in recent polls, roughly 9 points towards Biden.”

Rove noted that polls of independents previously found that 21% said they would be less likely to vote for Trump if he were convicted.

Trump and Biden will meet for their first debate since the 2020 election tomorrow night.

I tend to ignore political polls so early in a contest but I found it interesting that a diehard Republican such as Rove would comment so rigorously on them especially on Fox News.

Tony

George Latimer, a pro-Israel centrist, defeats Progressive Squad Representative Jamaal Bowman in New York Democratic primary!

George Latimer and Jamaal Bowman. Ted Shaffrey/AP

Dear Commons Community,

With almost 60 percent of the vote, George Latimer, a pro-Israel centrist, defeated U.S. Rep. Jamaal Bowman yesterday in a Democratic primary in suburban New York that highlighted the party’s deep divisions over the war in Gaza.

With the victory, Latimer has ousted one of the most liberal voices in Congress and one of its most outspoken critics of Israel. Bowman has accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza, where thousands of Palestinians have died in military strikes.

Latimer, who got into the race at the urging of Jewish leaders and had heavy financial backing from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, is a former state legislator who has served as Westchester County executive since 2018.  As reported by The Associated Press.

In a victory speech, Latimer called for more civility following the contentious election.

“We have to fight to make sure we don’t vilify each other and we remember that we’re all Americans, and our common future is bound together,” he told supporters at an event in White Plains.

“We argue, we debate, we find a way to come together,” he said, adding that all representatives had a duty to find ways to work across political divides and prevent the country from splintering.

Bowman had been seeking a third term, representing a district in New York City’s northern suburbs. His defeat is a blow to the party’s progressive “squad” wing and a potential cautionary tale for candidates trying to shape their messaging around the Israel-Hamas conflict.

His loss also disrupted what has generally been a stable primary season for congressional incumbents.

“This movement has always been about justice. It has always been about humanity. It has always been about equality,” Bowman said at his election party in Yonkers, conceding that he lost the race but remaining unapologetic about his opposition to the war in Gaza.

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s political action committee spent nearly $15 million on the primary, filling airwaves and mailboxes with negative ads in an effort to unseat Bowman, who has accused the influential pro-Israel lobbying group of trying to buy the race.

“The outcome in this race once again shows that the pro-Israel position is both good policy and good politics — for both parties,” the American Israel Public Affairs Committee said in a statement.

Some major progressive figures have rushed to Bowman’s defense. In the final stretch of the race, he rallied with liberals Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Bernie Sanders, while Latimer pulled in the endorsement of former presidential candidate and former New York Sen. Hillary Clinton.

On Israel, both Bowman and Latimer support a two-state solution. They have also both condemned Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on southern Israel that killed around 1,200 people. But Bowman was one of a few progressives who rejected a symbolic House resolution in support of Israel following the Oct. 7 attack. Latimer firmly backs Israel and said negotiating a cease-fire with Hamas is a non-starter because he believes it is a terrorist group.

Bowman was first elected in 2020 after running as a liberal insurgent against moderate U.S. Rep. Eliot Engel, a 16-term congressman who chaired a House committee on foreign affairs. Bowman, 48, embraced the political outsider strategy this year as well, depicting Latimer as a tool of Republican donors and pro-Israel groups.

Latimer said Bowman’s criticism of Israel was only part of the reason why he decided to challenge the incumbent. He said Bowman hasn’t been attentive to the needs of the district, maintained few relationships with its leaders, and was more interested in getting spots on cable news than he was in helping people.

During the campaign, Latimer, who has more than three decades of political experience, often displayed his deep regional knowledge and connections to make the case that he would be an effective member of Congress. Latimer has said that’s the sort of politics people expect from their elected officials, rather than caustic fights between the far right and far left — a clear dig at Bowman.

Aside from his position on Israel, Bowman has been followed by lingering criticism over an incident last year when he triggered a fire alarm in a House building while lawmakers were working on a funding bill. He said it was unintentional, with the alarm going off when he tried to open a locked door while trying to vote. Bowman was censured by his colleagues in the House, and the incident drew embarrassing news coverage.

The congressional district’s boundaries have shifted since Bowman first won office in 2020, losing most of its sections in the Bronx and adding more of Westchester County’s suburbs.

Today, 21% of its voting-age population is Black and 42% is non-Hispanic white, according to U.S. Census figures, compared to 30% Black and 34% white in the district as it existed through 2022. Bowman is Black. Latimer is white.

Bowman, as the election neared, focused on driving up turnout in what parts of the Bronx remain in his district, telling supporters there that the contest could hinge on their votes. He spent the bulk of his election day in the Bronx, too, and a video posted to the social media site X showed Bowman walking down a street in the Bronx with a drum line behind him on Tuesday.

Latimer, 70, will be the prohibitive favorite to win in the general election. The district, which includes parts of Westchester and a small piece of the Bronx, is a Democratic stronghold.

Nationally, Democratic Party leaders have emphasized moving toward centrist candidates who might fare better in suburban races.

Also yesterday, Democratic voters on Long Island picked former CNN anchor John Avlon as the candidate who will challenge incumbent Republican Rep. Nick LaLota in a district that’s been controlled by the GOP for a decade.

Avlon defeated retired chemistry professor Nancy Goroff in the Democratic primary. The Long Island congressional district has become a priority for Democrats as the party tries to flip suburban seats in New York as part of a strategy to win a House majority.

For the past three months, there were prime-time TV advertisements for Latimer or Bowman or both every night, making it the most expensive congressional primary contest ever in American politics.

Tony

Vice President Kamala Harris Calls Out Trump’s “Insults” for Claiming His Conviction Appeals to Black Voters

Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images

Dear Commons Community,

Vice President Kamala Harris slammed former President Donald Trump for repeatedly claiming that he appeals to Black voters because of his felony conviction, saying the Republican candidate’s racist efforts to reach Black Americans are “insulting.”

Harris, the first Black American, South Asian American, and woman to be vice president, made the remarks in an interview with MSNBC’s Mika Brzezinski that aired yesterday. During the interview, Brzezinski asked the Democrat her thoughts on the indicted ex-president’s attempt to connect with Black voters via his legal struggles, as well as his oft-repeated claim that he can’t be racist because he has Black friends.  As reported by The Huffington Post and other media.

“Well, on the first point, as connected to the second point, it’s insulting,” Harris answered. “It’s insulting for a number of reasons, including [that] he has reduced the whole population of people down to a sum total of what is, in his mind, who they are. And he’s wrong, and he’s wrong.”

Trump was convicted last month on 34 felony counts related to his hush money trial, one of many cases for which the former president has been indicted, including charges related to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election he lost.

“I got indicted for nothing ― for something that is nothing. … I got indicted a second time and a third time and a fourth time,” Trump said in February at the Black Conservative Federation Gala in South Carolina.

“And a lot of people said that that’s why the Black people like me, because they have been hurt so badly and discriminated against. And they actually viewed me as I’m being discriminated against,” he continued. “It’s been pretty amazing. Possibly ― maybe there’s something there.”

The Republican candidate repeated the claim in an interview with Semafor published earlier this month, alleging that Black voters have told him “very plainly and very clear” that they “feel that similar things have happened to them.”

At the time of Trump’s February comments, the Biden campaign said that the Republican “peddled racist tropes” that mocked Black voters.

“This might come as news to Trump, but pushing tired tropes, wannabe Jordans, and mugshot t-shirts isn’t going to win over Black voters who suffered through record high unemployment and skyrocketing uninsured rates under his leadership,” Biden spokesperson Sarafina Chitika said in a statement. “Trump is showing Black voters exactly what he thinks of them ― and his ideas to win them over are as corny and racist as he is.”

Trump has a long history of racism, having famously called for the Exonerated Five ― the Black and brown teenage boys falsely accused of rape in New York ― to receive the death penalty in the 1980s. He also led the right-wing conspiracy that falsely accused former President Barack Obama of having been born in Kenya and not the U.S., and called white nationalists marching in Charlottesville, Virginia, “very fine people.” Just last month, a producer for Trump’s former reality TV show, “The Apprentice,” alleged that there is a recording of the then-businessman using the N-word in reference to a Black contestant.

“I have so many Black friends that if I were a racist, they wouldn’t be friends, they would know better than anybody, and fast. They would not be with me for two minutes if they thought I was racist ― and I’m not racist!” Trump told Semafor this month, a claim he has often repeated despite the reality that having Black friends does not cancel out acts of racism.

Despite repeatedly denouncing the hush money trial that made him the first U.S. president to ever be convicted of a felony, Trump now proudly wears his guilty verdict with his 2024 campaign saying it has since received a massive influx of contributions.

“Every time the radical-left Democrats, Marxists, communists and fascists indict me, I consider it a great, great badge of honor,” Trump told the South Carolina audience in February. “Because I’m being indicted for you, the American people. I’m being indicted for you, the Black population. I’m being indicted for a lot of different groups by sick people.”

In a Pew Research Center poll released last month, 18% of Black respondents said they would vote for Trump ― double what it was during the 2020 election. About 77% said they would vote for Biden, and 65% said they believe Trump broke the law in trying to overturn the 2020 election.

Tony

Video: Maggie Haberman Predicts ‘Very Mean’ Part of Donald Trump’s Debate Performance

Dear Commons Community,

The New York Times’ Maggie Haberman yesterday acknowledged the unpredictability of former President Donald Trump means “predictions of how he is going to actually be” during his first presidential debate against President Joe Biden, which CNN is hosting on Thursday, “are probably not worth very much.”

While most candidates prepare methodically for the televised head-to-head, Haberman noted how presumptive GOP presidential nominee Trump had instead opted to focus on sessions on policy.

“But whether he is going to absorb what he’s learning there and whether he’s going to come in interrupting President Biden less than he did in 2020 in their first debate is an open question because he does what he wants to do,” she told CNN’s Anderson Cooper. See video below.

Haberman did note how Trump has been asking supporters during recent campaign rallies whether he should be “tough and nasty” to Biden or “nice and calm and let him speak.”

“I think he will likely interrupt less, because I think that’s the lesson he took from the first debate in 2020,” the journalist said, adding: “I think he will be very mean toward Biden. I would be very surprised if he’s anything other than that.”

We shall see on Thursday!

Tony

Tornado Warnings, Wind, Rain, Power Outages – Oh My!

Dear Commons Community,

Last evening we experienced here in New York all kinds of weather.  Most of the day was intensely hot and humid with 90 plus temperatures.  By evening, the clouds darkened and we started to see tornado alerts from the U.S. Weather Service  on our TV broadcast. Around 7:00 pm, an intense storm with rain and winds as strong as I have ever seen and comparable to a hurricane barrelled through.  It did not last long but it blacked out the area cutting off electricity and cable service.  The electricity returned later in the evening but the cable service was just returned a little while ago.

The photo above was taken in my next door neighbor’s backyard only about twenty yards from my house.  Below are several other photos of the destruction in and around my town.

Tony

Former Trump Official Monica Crowley Praises Senator Joe McCarthy!

Credit. Media Matters.

Dear Commons Community,

Monica Crowley, a former Fox News personality and Treasury Department official during Donald Trump’s presidential administration, showed love to Cold War-era Sen. Joseph McCarthy (R-Wis.) on Friday as she pushed a bizarre conspiracy theory that seemed straight out of the Red Scare.  As reported by The Huffington Post.

“By the way, Sen. Joe McCarthy was right,” Crowley said in remarks to the Faith & Freedom Coalition’s annual conference in Washington. “And he was trying to ring the bell in the 1950s about communist infiltration in our government.”

Crowley, who was also Trump’s pick for a National Security Council role before she declined it in early 2017 amid a plagiarism scandal involving her dissertation, added that the deep state “removed Richard Nixon,” “went after Ronald Reagan” and “is now going after Donald Trump.”

“That deep state became very insidious, and in the 1950s smeared and attacked Joe McCarthy for speaking the truth about godless communism in [the] very halls of our government,” said Crowley, who has previously peddled a number of Barack Obama-related conspiracy theories.

Her remarks arrive decades after McCarthy famously claimed there were communists and Soviet spies throughout the U.S. government.

The Senate would later vote to censure him in a 67-22 vote, less than three years prior to his 1957 death.

Speaking in Washington, Crowley said that communists have been “grabbing control over all of the aspects of American life and culture.”

“They called it ‘the long march through the institutions,’” she said. “And now they have succeeded because they’ve been at it for so long.”

Earlier this year, former Trump adviser Steve Bannon said he was “sure” that Crowley was on the short list for national security adviser in a second Trump term as he seeks to retake the White House.

God helps us!

Tony

Jeopardy Fans:  Alex Trebek to be honored with new Forever stamp!

Dear Commons Community,

Alex Trebek, the longtime host of Jeopardy, who died in 2020 after a battle with pancreatic cancer, is being remembered with a new Forever stamp by the United States Postal Service. The stamp, which officially goes on sale on July 22, coincides with the show’s 60th Diamond Celebration, which honors its remarkable six decades on air.

The sheet of 20 identical stamps features the display of video monitors seen on “Jeopardy!” alongside a photo of Trebek.

Written on each stamp is the clue: “This naturalized U.S. citizen hosted the quiz show ‘Jeopardy!’ for 37 seasons.” Underneath, written upside down, is the response: “Who is Alex Trebek?”

The show’s current host, Ken Jennings, announced the stamps during Friday’s episode.

Trebek, 80, died on Nov. 8 2020 following a long and public battle with pancreatic cancer. He was diagnosed with stage 4 pancreatic cancer in 2019. Despite the diagnosis, he never missed a day of work.

Trebek told “CBS Sunday Morning” in May 2019 that “it wouldn’t be right” for him to walk away from the show.

“It wouldn’t be right for me to walk away from this if I can possibly do it,” Trebek said. “And I managed to do it. So, what’s the big deal?”

Trebek started on the quiz show in 1984, and hosted more than 8,000 episodes, taking home six Daytime Emmys.

Nice!

Tony