Photo:  CNBC.

Dear Commons Community,

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said “the time has come” for the central bank to adjust its monetary policy, signaling that rate cuts could soon lower borrowing costs for American consumers and businesses.

Powell, who spoke at an annual conference of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, didn’t disclose specifics about when a rate cut could arrive, or its size, although economists have penciled in a reduction at the Fed’s September 18 meeting. The federal funds rate now stands in a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, its highest level in 23 years.  AS reported by CBS News and The Associated Press.

In conveying that the Fed is likely to start cutting its benchmark rate, Powell cited some weakening in the labor market, as well as progress in battling high inflation. A slowdown in hiring and an uptick in the unemployment rate last month heightened concerns the Fed could mistake in the other direction, keeping rates too high for too long, throttling growth and plunging the economy into recession.

“We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,” Powell said in his speech.

“The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks,” he said.

Powell also signaled the Federal Reserve is increasingly confident that inflation will continue to cool, eventually reaching the bank’s goal of a 2% annual rate, even with a reduction in borrowing costs. In previous speeches, Powell had raised concerns that rate cuts could spur inflation to flare up, erasing the gains the Fed had made in taming the hottest price increases in four decades.

“With an appropriate dialing back of policy restraint, there is good reason to think that the economy will get back to 2% inflation while maintaining a strong labor market,” Powell said.

Wall Street surged after Powell’s comments, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumping 378 points, or 0.9%, to 41,091. The S&P 500 gained 1.1% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite rose 1.5%.

“Powell has rung the bell for the start of the cutting cycle,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, in an email. “The Federal Reserve now has strong confidence about inflation’s path forward — it is time to shift to the other side of the dual mandate, and labor market risks now have their full attention.”

How big of a rate cut?

One question left unanswered by Powell’s speech was the potential size of a September rate cut. At the moment, about 3 in 4 economists polled by financial services firm FactSet are forecasting a reduction of 0.25 percentage points.

But if the August jobs data comes in weaker than expected, that could increase the chances of a bigger cut of 0.5 percentage points, experts noted. The August jobs report will be released on September 6.

“We continue to expect a cautious [0.25 percentage point] rate cut, but Powell underscored a view we have held that the Fed has room to ramp up the pace of rate cuts if the labor market deteriorates unexpectedly,” Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist for Nationwide, noted in an email, referring to basis points.

She added that she expects additional rate cuts before year-end, bringing the total reductions to 0.75 percentage points, adding, “but we see the possibility of more rate reduction if employment growth slows abruptly.”

How will this impact mortgage rates?

Already, mortgage rates have dropped to their lowest levels in 15 months, ahead of expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark interest rate next month for the first time in four years.

But a rate cut of 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points will likely only make small changes in borrowing costs for consumers, noted Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate, in an email. Even so, mortgage rates could continue to decline, especially if inflation continues to fall and the job market shows some weakness, experts have noted.

“From a consumer perspective, it’s important to note that lower interest rates will be a gradual process,” he said. “The trip down is likely to be much slower than the series of interest rate hikes which quickly pushed the federal funds rate higher by 5.25 percentage points in 2022 and 2023.”

Even though mortgage rates are already declining, there hasn’t yet been a meaningful change in credit card or auto loan rates, he added.

The stock market yesterday liked what Powell said with the Dow Jones Industrials finishing up 462 points.

Tony

Dear Commons Community,

The Chronicle of Higher Education had an interesting article yesterday describing the plight of many AI scientists who are having their work “peer” reviewed by AI programs. Here is an excerpt.

When Arjun Guha submitted a paper to a conference on artificial intelligence last year, he got feedback that made him roll his eyes. “The document is impeccably articulated,” one peer-reviewer wrote, “boasting a lucid narrative complemented by logically sequenced sections and subsections.”

Guha, an associate professor of computer science at Northeastern University, knew this “absurd” remark could stem from only one source: an AI chatbot.

“If I wanted to know what ChatGPT thought of our paper,” Guha complained on X, “I could have asked myself.”

AI is upending peer review, the time-honored tradition in which academics help judge which research should be elevated to publication — and which should go in the reject pile. Under the specter of ChatGPT, no one can be sure anymore that their intellectual labor is being read and judged by humans. Scientists, even those who think generative AI can be a helpful tool, say it’s demoralizing to be on the receiving end of an evaluation blatantly outsourced to a robot. And in an ironic twist, this blow to the ego appears to be hitting the AI field most of all: Up to 17 percent of reviews submitted to prestigious AI conferences in the last year were substantially written by large language models (LLMs), a recent study estimated.

Already, there are signs that AI evaluations could be corrupting the integrity of knowledge production. Computer-generated feedback may slightly boost a manuscript’s chance of approval, and uploading someone’s unpublished data into a chatbot in order to produce a review could amount to a breach of confidentiality policies. These are problems without easy solutions, ones that organizers of computer-science conferences — the main venues for publishing research in that field — are just beginning to acknowledge.

There is a little AI poetic justice here!

Tony

Reuters. pictures.com

Dear Commons Community,

Kamala Harris gave the speech of her life last night at the Democratic National Convention. She was forceful, unhesitating, and clear in where she wants to take our country.  She did not shy away from attacking Trump presenting a dark image of what the former president will do if reelected.  Here are some highlights.  You can view the full speech here.

Harris reviewed her background and growing up in a mostly one-parent home.  She would be the first woman president if she wins, as well as the first South Asian, the first Black woman.  But she didn’t dwell on the historic nature of her candidacy.

Harris acknowledged that hers was an “uncertain journey,” the daughter of Indian and Jamaican immigrants who was raised by a single mother after her parents split up. One of her comments was a jolt when she told a story of her mother advising her and her sister to “never do anything half-assed.”

Her speech drew wild applause and left some in tears, as she formally accepted her party’s nomination for president, laid out her vision for the country and wasted no time spelling out how dangerous a reelected Donald Trump would be for women, middle-class Americans and the rule of law itself.

Harris cast herself as a seasoned fighter, drawing a direct from her years as a prosecutor fighting for women and children against abusers, to her stint as the California attorney general taking on big banks and gun cartels, to her fights to win tough elections, to her current fight to protect American democracy from Trump.

“In many ways, Donald Trump is an unserious man,” Harris said. “The consequences of putting Donald Trump back in the White House are extremely serious.”

She described the “chaos and calamity” that marked Trump’s first term as president and then the gravity of what came next: Trump incited an insurrection on Jan. 6, 2021, to try to prevent the votes for Joe Biden to become president from being counted. On top of that, Trump was impeached twice and, since leaving office, has been convicted of 34 felony counts in the hush-money case and was found liable for committing sexual abuse and defamation.

“Consider what he intends to do if we give him power again,” Harris warned. “Consider the power he will have, especially after the United States Supreme Court just ruled he would be immune from criminal prosecution.”

The vice president homed in on Trump’s attacks on women’s reproductive rights. She described meeting with women around the country in her capacity as vice president and hearing horror stories about miscarrying in parking lots, getting sepsis and losing the ability to have children again ― all because doctors in their states were afraid of going to jail for providing them with abortion care. And she emphasized that he and his allies want to keep chipping away at reproductive rights.

“Simply put, they are out of their minds,” Harris concluded, to deafening cheers.

Run, Kamala, Run!

Tony

Photo: Mandel NGAN / AFP via Getty Images

Dear Commons Community,

I was celebrating my 77^th birthday last night with my wife, my son, and his partner last night and did not watch too much of the DNC Convention. However,  I did catch the end of former President Bill Clinton’s speech. I have not seen him in several years but have a little nostalgia for him. He has aged a bit. His voice is raspier. His left hand shakes but his message was clear and well-received.  The focus of his comments was to help pass the party’s torch to a younger generation and to give a resounding endorsement of the Harris-Walz ticket.  Here is a brief summary courtesy of USA Today.

After the former president took the stage to a rapturous ovation and recognized the notable change of energy surrounding the party after President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race saying, “aren’t you proud to be a Democrat.”

Clinton took multiple shots at Republican’s economic record, saying that 50 million jobs had been created under Democrats since the end of the Cold War compared to one million jobs under Republicans.

Clinton also took swipes at Republican nominee Donald Trump, including his propensity to mention fictional characters in his speeches.

“When you send a signal to other countries you want them to know, whether they agree with you or not, that you’re on the level about what you say and what you believe,” Clinton said. “What are they supposed to think about the endless tributes to the late great Hannibal Lecter?”

Clinton’s appearance was a reminder that the convention at the United Center served as a transition from the party away from triangulation and NAFTA to a party of infrastructure spending and child tax credits.

“I love seeing all these young leaders,” Clinton said. “They look better, they sound better and they’ll be exciting.”

I agree!

Tony

Dear Commons Community

Eleven of 23 school board candidates endorsed by the Florida governor appeared to have lost their races Tuesday night, the Tampa Bay Times reported, and another five races looked headed to November runoffs.

Incumbents Laura Hine and Eileen Long were poised to fend off DeSantis-endorsed Danielle Marolf and Erika Picard, respectively, according to unofficial results from the state’s Pinellas County.

In Hillsborough County, incumbents Nadia Combs and Jessica Vaughn also looked set to defeat DeSantis-backed challengers, according to results from Fox 13 News.

The Associated Press also reported that two DeSantis-appointed school board members in Broward County lost their seats to challengers.

The results are a blow to DeSantis, who lodged an unsuccessful bid for the White House this cycle. Last cycle, a majority of his endorsed candidates won their school board elections in Florida, flipping some liberal-leaning school boards to conservative.

The Sunshine State governor has leaned hard into educational issues as part of his political brand, while Florida has come under national criticism over controversial book-banning policies and Black history education.

Glad to see that Florida parents are stopping the insanity of DeSantis.!

Tony

Dear Commons Community,

I have just finished reading Andrea Molesini’s novel, Not All Bastards Are From Vienna. Molesini is a professor of comparative literature at the University of Padua.  Not All Bastards.. won a number of literary prizes when it was first published in 2010. The setting of this book is a small village outside of Venice in 2017 during World War I that has been overtaken by German and Austrian troops.  The story focuses on three generations of the Spada family as they struggle to survive the brutality of the war.  There is sadness, humor, and stark realism in this book.  The last sixty or so pages are riveting.

If you are at all interested in the World War I, you will enjoy Molesini’s book.

Below is a review that appeared in The New York Times when Not All Bastards.. was first translated into English in 2016.  

Tony

—————————————————————————————————————-

The New York Times

Not All Bastards Are From Vienna by Andrea Molesini

By Katherine A. Powers

Jan. 29, 2016

“Not All Bastards Are from Vienna,” winner of Italy’s 2011 Campiello Prize, is Andrea Molesini’s first novel for adults — though it still possesses the straightforward narrative line and colorful characters of a story for children. Set during World War I, events are related by 17-year-old Paolo Spada, recently orphaned and now living with a menagerie of relations and servants in the Villa Spada, in a small town north of Venice.

First, though not foremost, among the Spadas is Grandpa Gugliemo, Paolo’s anticlerical, acerbic-tongued great-uncle. He is married to Grandma Nancy, “a white-haired panther of a woman,” a mathematician and a devotee of enemas. Then there is Aunt Maria, “the victim of a haughty manner,” a powerhouse who runs the place. The family is served by Teresa, blocky, resourceful and loyal, and by her daughter Loretta, resentful and moonstruck by the estate’s steward, Renato. He is a wily character and, as we discover, an Italian intelligence officer. Other key players include lush-bosomed, high-spirited Giulia, six years older than Paolo and the object of his urgent passion; the village priest, Don Lorenzo, well fed and authoritarian; and, finally, a lurking presence attached to Grandma Nancy known as the Third Paramour.

A German officer’s monocle glinting in the night sets off the plot. It disting­uishes the horse-mounted person of Captain Korpium, fresh from victory at Caporetto, Italy’s humiliating defeat by combined German and Austro-Hungarian forces in November 1917. He has come to requisition the Villa Spada for his fellow officers and to quarter his troops in the village. The family is forced to squeeze itself into a couple of rooms, and there is much German smashing of furniture and seizing of valuables, though Grandma’s cache of jewels and coins in an enema bag remains undetected.

Notably, the family is spared the brutality, rape and methodical pillage suffered by the common people. Of these atrocities we get some dreadful glimpses, but much of the novel dwells on the Spada household’s domestic arrangements under German and, later, Austrian occupation. Food is scarce, but the black market and Teresa’s gift for producing nameless roasts mean they do not starve. Their greatest trial, until events turn lethal, is the feeling of degradation: A soldiers’ latrine abuts the Spada graveyard, and the family is forced to attend a dinner, in their own dining room, honoring Otto von Below, the victor of Caporetto.

An air of suspense gathers as the Spadas and friends are drawn into the Italian resistance, eavesdropping, sending coded signals and carrying messages. Eventually, Paolo is sent on a desperate mission to assist a British airman — and the family oversteps the boundary of immunity granted by their class with fatal consequences. Some 20 miles away, the Battle of Piave of June 1918 has commenced. It was here that the Italians, strengthened by Allied support, reversed their enemies’ seemingly unstoppable advance in a victory that struck a mortal blow to the ­Austro-Hungarian Empire ­itself.

As events unfold, various characters observe with sorrow that this war is destroying the old order and its civilized way of life. Still, we never sense that so much as we do the immemorial horrors of battle; the motivation behind betrayal, of which there is a calamitous instance; and the appetite for vengeance in even the noblest heart. Based on the reminiscences of an actual Maria Spada, “Not All Bastards Are From Vienna” is not a deep novel, but is wonderfully alive — often terribly so — as a wartime adventure and story of youth arriving at manhood.

Dear Commons Community,

There were a number of fine speeches last night at the Democratic National Convention. Doug Emhoff, Kamala Harris’ husband, gave heartfelt insights into their relationship. Barack Obama gave well-timed and hard-hitting comments about the importance of this election .  However, it was former first lady Michelle Obama who delivered the most exciting moments last night that had the crowd jumping up in their seats for more.

“Something wonderfully magical is in the air,” Michelle Obama said, speaking of “the contagious power of hope” and “the exhilaration of once again being on the cusp of a brighter day.”

Obama, who was America’s first Black first lady as the wife of the first Black president, noted that the country could once again make history if it gives the presidency to Kamala Harris — who would be the first female president — come November. But she warned the rallied Democrats against taking that prospect for granted, leading DNC attendees in increasingly loud chants of “DO SOMETHING!”

“Let us not forget what we are up against. Remember there are still so many people who are desperate for a different outcome,” she said, referencing possibilities like some voters being unwilling to vote for America’s first female president.

Over the course of a 20-something minute speech, she brought a fiery energy to the stage, alternately reminding people of how much hope was ahead of them ― and how much work.

“No matter how good we feel tonight or tomorrow or the next day, this is going to be an uphill battle,” she continued. Democrats, she said, should anticipate moments where polls suggest Harris is behind Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, and noting that Harris and her vice presidential candidate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, cannot be expected to be perfect as they campaign.

“We cannot get a Goldilocks complex about whether everything is just right,” Obama said. “We cannot indulge our anxieties about whether this country will elect someone like Kamala instead of doing everything we can to get someone like Kamala elected.”

As the penultimate speaker on the convention’s second day, she described Harris as “living a life of service,” and drew parallels between the Democratic candidate’s life and her own. Though Obama’s mother was from Chicago and Harris’ from India, Obama noted, both “shared the same belief in the promise of this country.”

She made only one reference to Trump by name, but extensively contrasted his life ― as the son of a wealthy businessman with a penchant for bending the laws to his advantage, with that of people like Harris, her husband and herself.

Most Americans don’t have “the affirmative action of generational wealth,” Obama said.

And she took some subtle digs at Trump as well: “If we see a mountain in front of us, we don’t expect there to be an escalator waiting to take us to the top,” she said, in apparent reference to Trump’s 2015 campaign announcement, when he descended on a golden Trump Tower escalator to speak to reporters.

Attendees grew increasingly excited throughout her speech, with many cheering “Yes!” after particularly compelling lines. “This girl is on fire!” one older Black woman in the crowd exclaimed.

After praising Harris ― suggesting her candidacy means “hope is making a comeback” ― she repeatedly warned against allowing her rival to win, given his penchant for attacks on individuals and particular communities. She particularly called out Trump’s year of insults and aspersions against her husband and herself because, she said, he could not tolerate seeing their success.

“Going small is petty. It’s unhealthy. And, quite frankly, it’s unpresidential,” Obama said. “Why would we normalize that type of backward leadership?”

BRAVA!

Tony

Dear Commons Community,

President Joe Biden received a hero’s welcome last night at the Democratic National Convention and delivered an oration designed to be a handoff to Kamala Harris.  His address  framed his own legacy and signaled he was ready to cede control of the party to Harris.

He took the stage to a long ovation from delegates hoisting “We love Joe” placards and told them in turn, “I love you!” After the affectionate opening, Biden spent stretches of his 50-minute speech hitting Trump, returning to a key theme of the reelection campaign he’s no longer running.

Biden ticked through many of his administration’s achievements, including a major public works package and climate program, and shared the credit with Harris. He said picking Harris as his running mate was the best decision he ever made and promised to be the “best volunteer” that Harris and running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz have ever seen.

His closing message to those still listening as the convention stretched late into the night: “I gave my best to you for 50 years.”

Kamal Harris made an unscheduled appearance onstage to pay tribute to Biden ahead of his own address to the convention. She told the president, “Thank you for your historic leadership, for your lifetime of service to our nation, and for all you’ll continue to do.”

On a night meant to honor the president who stepped aside to make way for Harris, the vice president added, “We are forever grateful to you.”

Amen!

Tony

L. Michael Luttig. Photo by Susan Walsh.  AP.

Dear Commons Community,

Conservative former federal Judge J. Michael Luttig endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris’ 2024 presidential bid yesterday, in what will be his first time voting for a Democrat, according to CNN.

“In the presidential election of 2024 there is only one political party and one candidate for the presidency that can claim the mantle of defender and protector of America’s Democracy, the Constitution, and the Rule of Law,” Luttig wrote in a blistering statement. “As a result, I will unhesitatingly vote for the Democratic Party’s candidate for the Presidency of the United States, Vice President of the United States, Kamala Harris.”

Luttig is a former jurist on the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals and a highly respected conservative legal scholar. He has been outspoken about Donald Trump’s attempt to fraudulently overturn the 2020 presidential election, arguing that Trump is a threat to democracy and deeply unfit for office.

“To this day — to this day still — not only does the former president, and now the Republican Party of which he is again the standard bearer, continue to falsely claim that the former president won the 2020 election,” Luttig said in his statement, “he and his Party defiantly refuse even to pledge that they will honor and respect the vote and the will of the American People in the upcoming presidential election.”

He added that today’s GOP has “literally taken America political hostage, threatening the Nation with the specter of another January 6, 2021 on January 6, 2025, if the former president again loses his campaign for the presidency by a vote of the American People.”

The former judge, a Republican appointed to the federal bench by President George H.W. Bush, said that although he and Harris likely have sharp differences on public policy, he is supporting her campaign because of her commitment to the rule of law and the Constitution.

Luttig is only the latest Republican to back Harris’ White House bid. Over the weekend, former Virginia GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock announced she planned to vote for Harris in November.

“After Jan. 6, after Donald Trump has refused for four years to acknowledge that he lost, and his threats against democracy, I think it’s important to turn the page,” Comstock said during a CNN interview Sunday. “That’s why I will be voting for the vice president.”

Thank you, Mr. Luttig and Ms. Comstock!

Tony

Shawn Fein, President of the UAW. Courtesy of MSNBC.

Dear Commons Community,

I watched a good portion of the opening of the Democratic National Convention last night.  It was part lovefest for Kamala Harris and Joe Biden; and part zingers aimed at Donald Trump.  I thought New York Governor Kathy Hochul good riddance comment about Trump moving out of New York and then expressing sympathy for Florida was especially good. Other zingers included:

Joe Biden  closed out the night with a rousing speech passing the torch to his veep. At one point, he noted that the crime rate is falling, and will drop again after the election for one very specific reason:  “Crime will keep coming down when we put a prosecutor in the oval office instead of a convicted felon.

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) called Trump a “plague on the American conscience.”

Warnock, who is also a pastor, noted the $60 “God Bless The USA Bible” that Trump has been hawking.

“He should try reading it,” Warnock said.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who lost to Trump in 2016, drew a sharp contrast between Harris and the former president, who was convicted earlier this year on 34 felony charges.

“Kamala locked up murderers and drug traffickers. She will never rest in defense of our freedom and safety,” Clinton said. “Donald Trump fell asleep at his own trial ― and when he woke up, he made his own kind of history: the first person to run for president with 34 felony convictions.”

Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Tex.) also got the audience cheering with a reference to Trump’s criminal convictions.

“America, looking at the two choices before you, who would you hire: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?” she asked the crowd. “Kamala Harris has a resume. Donald Trump has a rap sheet. She presides over the Senate, while he keeps our national secrets next to his thinking chair.”

Cases of sensitive documents were found at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home, including some next to a toilet:

Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) gave Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), a reminder on why the number two spot on the GOP ticket was even available to him:

“do you understand why there was a sudden job opening for running mate on the GOP ticket? They tried to kill your predecessor.”

Shawn Fain, president of the United Auto Workers, let his T-shirt do some of the talking last night.

“In the words of the great American poet Nelly, ‘It’s gettin’ hot in here,’” Fain said, then removed his jacket to reveal a shirt reading “TRUMP IS A SCAB.”

The UAW filed unfair labor practice charges against Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk after a conversation in which the two spoke positively about firing workers who are on strike.

Good entertainment at Trump’s expense!

Tony