Dear Commons Community,
McKinsey & Co. has just published a new report on advances in quantum computing that shows investment could propel the quantum market to $100 billion in a decade. Just as AI is changing the software aspect of digital technology, quantum computing has the potential to do the same for the hardware side. Here is an excerpt from the introduction.
“When it comes to quantum technology (QT), investment is surging and breakthroughs are multiplying. The United Nations has designated 2025 the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology, celebrating 100 years since the initial development of quantum mechanics. Our research confirms that QT is gaining widespread traction worldwide. McKinsey’s fourth annual Quantum Technology Monitor covers last year’s breakthroughs, investment trends, and emerging opportunities in this fast-evolving landscape.
In 2024, the QT industry saw a shift from growing quantum bits (qubits) to stabilizing qubits—and that marks a turning point. It signals to mission-critical industries that QT could soon become a safe and reliable component of their technology infrastructure. To that end, this year’s report provides a special deep dive into the fast-growing market of quantum communication, which could unlock the security needed for widespread QT uptake.
What is quantum technology?
Our new research shows that the three core pillars of QT—quantum computing, quantum communication, and quantum sensing—could together generate up to $97 billion in revenue worldwide by 2035. Quantum computing will capture the bulk of that revenue, growing from $4 billion in revenue in 2024 to as much as $72 billion in 2035 (see sidebar “What is quantum technology?”). While QT will affect many industries, the chemicals, life sciences, finance, and mobility industries will see the most growth.
We conducted extensive analysis to project the 2035 global market sizes for each of the three pillars of QT. We found that by 2035, quantum computing could be worth $28 billion to $72 billion, quantum communication could be worth $11 billion to $15 billion, and quantum sensing could be worth $7 billion to $10 billion—for a total of as much as $97 billion. This growth shows no signs of slowing. We predict that by 2040, the total QT market could reach $198 billion. We present our market size estimates as a range because of the large variance in potential technological progress, adoption rates, and scaling opportunities for QT in the decade to come (see sidebar “About the report”).
Private and public investors are increasingly confident that QT start-ups will generate measurable value. In 2024 they poured nearly $2.0 billion into QT start-ups worldwide, a 50 percent increase compared to $1.3 billion in 2023. Private sector funding from venture capital and private equity firms accounted for two-thirds of that total, or about $1.3 billion, a decline of 19 percentage points compared with 2023. Public funding took up the reins, increasing 19 percentage points relative to 2023 to account for 34 percent of 2024 funding, or $680 million (Exhibit 1). This shows increased urgency from governments to invest in QT’s potential.
Significant private and public entities investing in QT start-ups in 2024 include SoftBank’s partnership with Quantinuum and Aramco’s investment in Pasqal. Japan’s National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology’s collaboration with QuEra and IonQ and Qatar Investment Authority’s partnership with Alice & Bob are other examples of major investments in this space.”
Quantum computing is something to keep an eye on.
Tony
Executive Summary (10 pages)Full Report (82 pages)
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