Dear Commons Community,

A Democrat-backed judge has won a key seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, in a vote widely seen as a referendum on  Trump’s administration.

Susan Crawford overcame the wrath of Trump and a $21 million donation to her Republican opponent by Elon Musk.

Her victory is a boost for the Democrats, who had framed the race around the popularity of Trump and Mr. Musk.  As reported by The Telegraph.

In Wisconsin, Ms. Crawford defeated Brad Schimel, a former Republican attorney and conservative judge from Waukesha county, after Mr. Musk helped fund the most expensive judicial contest in American history.

During the campaign, Mr. Musk said the race could “decide the future of America and Western civilisation”.

Referring to the Tesla and SpaceX founder in her victory speech, Ms. Crawford said: “Growing up in Chippewa Falls, I never could have imagined that I would be taking on the richest man in the world for justice in Wisconsin… And we won.”

Mr. Musk, who for weeks prioritized efforts to secure Mr. Schimel’s victory, said after the result that the “long con of the Left is corruption of the judiciary” and what was more important was a vote in favour of voter ID.

The result means liberals will keep their 4-3 majority on Wisconsin’s Supreme Court, which will hear significant cases on abortion and bargaining rights.

The court could also hear cases that could prompt Wisconsin, a national swing state, to change the boundaries of its eight congressional districts, which currently benefit the Republicans.

Milwaukee, Wisconsin’s largest city, said there had been a “historic turnout” for the election, with seven polling stations running out of ballots.

Around $80 million was spent on the race in total, including $21 million by Mr. Musk and his associates.

The Tesla billionaire revived some of the tactics he used to support Mr Trump in November’s national election, giving voters $100  to sign petitions and travelling to Wisconsin to offer $1 million  checks to two voters.

“Today Wisconsinites fended off an unprecedented attack on our democracy, our fair elections and our Supreme Court,” Ms. Crawford said in her victory speech. “And Wisconsin stood up and said loudly that justice does not have a price, our courts are not for sale.”

Speaking hours before the vote, Mr. Musk told Fox News: “In general, there’s a huge problem with activists that are actually politicians in judge’s robes… These fake judges should be ashamed of themselves”.

When Mr. Schimel told his supporters he had conceded to Ms. Crawford, some started to boo. One woman started chanting: “Cheater!”

“No,” Mr. Schimel responded. “You’ve got to accept the results.”

 YES!

Tony

Dear Commons Community,

The conservative Wall Street Journal editorial page yesterday whacked Trump for handing Democrats what it said could be a winning campaign message in the 2026 midterm elections.

In particular, the Journal took aim at Trump for professing indifference to the price increases his tariffs are likely to inflict upon American consumers when he said that “I couldn’t care less” if car manufacturers raise prices in response to his tariffs. He further added, “I hope they raise their prices, because if they do, people are gonna buy American-made cars.”

“As a political matter, Mr. Trump’s ‘I couldn’t care less’ quote about price increases is likely to show up in Democratic campaign ads next year,” the editors warned. “Polling shows most voters don’t think Mr. Trump is focusing enough on reducing prices—64% say not enough in the CBS News survey released Sunday. Mr. Trump won’t be on the ballot in 2026, but you can bet TV ads will link Republicans in Congress to Mr. Trump and those comments.”

Below is the entire Wall Street Journal editorial

Tony

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The Wall Street Journal 

A $6 Trillion Trump Tax Increase?

Navarro says tariffs will raise $600 billion a year for the government, but he says this is a tax cut.

By The Editorial Board

March 31, 2025 5:40 pm ET

Financial markets have the shakes as President Trump prepares to launch his next big tariff salvo on Wednesday. And nerves are appropriate since Mr. Trump’s chief trade adviser, Peter Navarro, is boasting about what he says will amount to a $6 trillion tax increase from the tariffs.

“Tariffs are going to raise about $600 billion a year, about $6 trillion over a 10-year period,” Mr. Navarro told Fox News on Sunday. This is on top of $100 billion a year from Mr. Trump’s car and truck tariffs. He also tried to claim that “the message is that tariffs are tax cuts.”

George Orwell, call your office. In the real economic world, a tariff is a tax. If you raise $600 billion more a year in revenue for the federal government, you are taking that amount away from individuals and businesses in the private economy.

By any definition that is a tax increase, and the $600 billion figure would be one of the largest in U.S. history. It amounts to about 2% of gross domestic product, and it would take the federal tax share of GDP above 19%. The average since 1975 is about 17.3%. Democrats, who love tax increases, haven’t dared pass such a large revenue heist.

It’s possible Mr. Trump will walk back from this tax ledge, and Kevin Hassett, who runs the White House economic council, wouldn’t say on Sunday what Mr. Trump will do.

But what is clear is that the President is going to impose significant tariffs, and do so when the economy is slowing. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDP Now estimate for the first quarter, which ended Monday, has the economy shrinking 0.5%. That volatile number will change as March data arrive, but both consumers and businesses have grown more cautious as they worry about the effect of tariffs.

This is especially worrying because the signs are that Mr. Trump thinks tariffs are worth the economic damage. The latest evidence is his weekend claim that he doesn’t give a hoot if prices rise on foreign cars. “I couldn’t care less, because if the prices on foreign cars go up, they’re going to buy American cars,” Mr. Trump told NBC News. “I hope they raise their prices, because if they do, people are gonna buy American-made cars. We have plenty.”

Somehow we doubt American consumers will feel the same at a dealer showroom. Mr. Trump’s 25% tariff on foreign cars, which goes into effect this week, will raise car prices by some amount. Foreign car makers might absorb some of the tariff cost, but some part of the 25% levy is sure to be passed on to American consumers.

Mr. Trump also ignores that U.S. car makers are also likely to raise their prices. If Hyundai raises the price of an export model made in South Korea, then Ford and GM may at first try to capture market share. But over time the U.S firms would be foolish not to raise their prices to increase profits, perhaps by some margin less than the increase on imported cars.

That’s what happened after Mr. Trump raised tariffs on washing machines in his first term. Washer prices rose nearly 12%, according to a 2019 study, and it didn’t matter where the machine was made.

As a political matter, Mr. Trump’s “I couldn’t care less” quote about price increases is likely to show up in Democratic campaign ads next year. Polling shows most voters don’t think Mr. Trump is focusing enough on reducing prices—64% say not enough in the CBS News survey released Sunday. Mr. Trump won’t be on the ballot in 2026, but you can bet TV ads will link Republicans in Congress to Mr. Trump and those comments.

The President’s ideological fixation on tariffs is crowding out rational judgments about the consequences. Americans are being told to accept the pain of higher prices, a slower economy, and shrinking 401(k) balances in the name of Mr. Trump’s project to transform the American economy into what he imagines it was like in the McKinley era of the 1890s.

We wonder if the working-class voters who are supposed to be the vanguard of the new GOP will feel as good about the pain as they try to make ends meet paycheck to paycheck.

Dear Commons Community,

The outlook for international travel to the U.S. has drastically changed and is now seen declining this year instead of rising.

According to a Feb. 27 report from research firm Tourism Economics, visits are expected to fall 5.1%, down from an earlier view for an 8.8% increase. Spending by foreign tourists is expected to tumble 11%, representing a loss of $18 billion this year.

That’s as President Trump’s tariffs and friendlier approach to Russia have created a global backlash, while an expanded trade-war scenario is seen slowing economic growth across U.S. trade partners and weighing on their currencies.  AS reported by Fortune.com.

“In key origin markets, a situation with polarizing Trump Administration policies and rhetoric, accompanied by economic losses to nationally important industries, small businesses and households, will discourage travel to the US,” the report said. “Some organizations will feel pressure to avoid hosting events in the US, or sending employees to the US, cutting into business travel.”

In emailed comments to Fortune, Tourism Economics President Adam Sacks said in the two weeks since the report came out, the situation has deteriorated further and the forecast for a 5.1% decline is likely to get worse.

Visitors from Canada, which has been hit by Trump’s tariffs and demands for it to become the 51st U.S. state, have been canceling travel plans. In fact, the number of Canadian car trips coming back from the U.S. were down 24% in February compared to a year ago, and overall travel from Canada is seen falling 15% this year.

Meanwhile, Trump’s immigration crackdown may also raise concerns among potential travelers, particularly from Mexico, the report added.

Travel from Western Europe, which accounts for over a third of foreign tourism to the U.S., is susceptible to declines due to tariffs and “the administration’s perceived recent alignment with Russia in the war in Ukraine as sentiment towards the US is damaged,” Tourism Economics warned.

Separate data shows the overall number of foreign visitors to the U.S. fell 2.4% last month from a year ago. Travel sank 9% from Africa, 6% from Central America, and 7% from Asia, with China down 11%, according to a Washington Post analysis of government statistics.

Airlines have also sounded the alarm recently on lessened travel demand from consumers and businesses as tariffs and mass federal layoffs create economic uncertainty.

Not only are tariffs slamming foreign tourism, they are widely expected to slow U.S. economic growth, with Wall Street pricing in growing odds of a recession. And fewer overseas visitors will make that worse because all their spending in the U.S. is treated in government statistics like an export, meaning the trade deficit is poised to widen. A deeper imbalance was a major factor in the Atlanta Fed’s GDP tracker suddenly shifting into negative territory for the first quarter.

To be sure, similar declines in foreign visitors were seen during Trump’s first term, especially from Mexico, China, and the Middle East, according to Tourism Economics. But his trade war was more limited back then. Now, his tariffs are more aggressive and expansive, with no sign he plans to back down.

That comes as the U.S. will feature prominently in major upcoming tourism events. The U.S. will co-host the World Cup next year, and Los Angeles will host the Summer Olympics in 2028.

Sacks told Fortune the World Cup is less likely to be affected while the Olympics may be more at risk comparatively.

“The issue for general holiday travelers is that they have a choice of when and where to travel,” he added. “This ultimate discretion means that antipathy towards a country’s leadership can have appreciable effects.”

States with high foreign tourism like New York and Florida will be especially hard hit.

Tony