Dear Commons Community,
Last week I was invited to give a talk on the history of CUNY at The College of Staten Island. During the question and answer period at the end of the session, I was asked about the future. I speculated on several issues but my most critical comment referred to the looming decline in the traditional student population particularly in states in the Northeast such as New York.
The latest data in the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education’s 11th edition of the “Knocking at the College Door” report, released yesterday, supports my comments and affirms consistent projections that the country is about to see a peak in high school graduates—between 3.8 million and 3.9 million—but will see a downward slope in the years to come, dropping below 3.4 million in 2041.
The impact will be felt in 38 states, but with some states affected more than others. Eight states will see a decline of 20 percent in the typical graduation class size over the next 15 years. Only the South, including Washington, D.C., will see net increases, according to the report. New York will see a decline of 27 percent.
The decline is based largely on population trends, but influenced by a sizeable number of students who may have left K-12 schools altogether, and a nationwide graduation rate plateau, researchers say. And the pandemic’s lingering effects on the number of students who are prepared to graduate from high school are already being felt—and could worsen the decline.
“When we look around our region and more broadly around the country, we see workforce shortages in virtually any important employment sector that you can think of—from health care, teaching, nursing, engineering to things that may not be as high on people’s radar, things like diesel technicians,” Patrick Lane, the vice president for policy analysis and research for WICHE, a nonprofit that aims to expand access to higher education, said in a press call. “But if these declining high school graduate numbers translate into even more downward pressure on enrollments, it’ll be hard to meet some of these workforce demands.”
What the data show
Only 12 states, and the District of Columbia, will see an increase in total graduates in 2041, but most will see a decline, adding up to roughly a 10 percent drop nationally (see map above).
Seven states, however, will see declines of more than 20 percent, and five high population states (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, and Pennsylvania) are anticipated to account for three-fourths of the total projected decline between 2023 and 2041
The decline is dependent on two factors, the report states: declining births, which fell sharply starting in 2008 due to the Great Recession and have continued to fall, and the rate of students progressing through school to earn diplomas.
Births have dipped nearly 1 percent each year between 2008 and 2023, with a sharp drop in 2020. Those numbers have since leveled out, but there’s still a consistent decrease, the report shows.
Increasing high school graduation rates would help offset the downturn, but wouldn’t totally halt it, according to the report. The country would have to graduate more than 95 percent of students who will be enrolled in 9th grade in 2037 to match the number of projected graduates in the class of 2025. However, for the last five cohorts, the average graduation rate is closer to 88 percent.
That 88 percent is an increase from 2010, when the average high school graduation rate was 80 percent. But because there will be fewer students in general, the number of graduates is still anticipated to decline.
Without a doubt, It will be a difficult time for many colleges and universities that are enrollment and/or tuition-driven.
Tony
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