So What Happened to Newt?

Dear Commons Community,

The latest Quinnipiac College poll has Newt Gingrich’s appeal slipping in Florida.  A week ago, he and Mitt Romney were polling neck and neck.  Now the poll indicates that 38% of likely Republican voters favor Romney to Gingrich’s 29%.    In addition, most commentators observed that Gingrich was clobbered by Romney during the CNN debate on Thursday night.  So what happened to Newt.

Howard Fineman in an article in the Huffington Post provides his insights.

First, the Palin factor.   Earlier this week Gingrich said he would offer former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin a “major role in the next administration if I’m president.” That one statement scared the accept-Newt, Republican-establishment types. ”

Second, the Rubio factor.  Marco Rubio, the popular Cuban-American senator from Florida has not endorsed a candidate, but he doesn’t need to. He devastated Gingrich by complaining — vehemently — about an ad the Gingrich campaign had run calling Romney “the most anti-immigrant candidate”.

Third, the Moon Factor.  Gingrich went  too far when he vowed to establish an American space colony on the moon by the end of his second term.

Fourth, the Wolf Factor. Gingrich was unable to bully his way past the savvy Wolf Blitzer, the  CNN debate moderator, when the former speaker tried to decry the role of the mainstream media.

Lastly, the  O’Donnell Factor. Debate coach Brett O’Donnell earned his pay by coaching Romney.

Yes to all!

Tony

 

 

And Another Republican Candidates Debate!

Dear Commons Community,

I watched the entire Republican presidential candidates’ debate on CCN last night.   I thought I would catch the first hour or so but was drawn into the heat, passion and humor of the candidates and so watched the entire two hours.  The New York Times and the Huffington Post have excellent recaps if you are interested.  Here are a couple of highlights.

Mitt Romney was particularly aggressive while Newt Gingrich seemed rather passive.  In past debates, their give and take was the opposite.

There was lots of heated discussion between Romney and Gingrich over immigration which I believe Romney won.

Gingrich proposed establishing that the United States establish the first base on the moon.  Romney’s reply was that if one of my staff proposed spending hundreds of billions of dollars for a moon base “ I would fire him’.  Gingrich had no reply.

Rick Santorum was okay but nothing special.

Ron Paul had me and the audience laughing over several remarks.  The most humorous was when Wolf Blitzer asked him because of his age would he disclose his medical records. After chiding Blitzer for age discrimination, Paul challenged his three opponents to a “25 mile bike race in the Texas heat”.

Tony

 

President Obama – New Financial Aid Proposal – Make College More Affordable!

Dear Commons Community,

President Obama is proposing a financial aid overhaul that for the first time would tie colleges’ eligibility for campus-based aid programs — Perkins loans, work-study jobs and supplemental grants for low-income students — to the institutions’ success in improving affordability and value for students, administration officials said.  The New York Times is reporting:

“Under the plan, which the president is expected to outline today at the University of Michigan, the amount available for Perkins loans would grow to $8 billion, from the current $1 billion. The president also wants to create a $1 billion grant competition, along the lines of the Race for the Top program for elementary and secondary education, to reward states that take action to keep college costs down, and a separate $55 million competition for individual colleges to increase their value and efficiency.

The administration also wants to give families clearer information about costs and quality, by requiring colleges and universities to offer a “shopping sheet” that makes it easier to compare financial aid packages and — for the first time — compiling post-graduate earning and employment information to give students a better sense of what awaits them. “

The major caveat is that most of these changes would all require Congressional approval.  Not sure that is possible in this presidential election year.

Tony

 

Small Schools Graduation Rates Up – New Study!

Dear Commons Community,

The Hechinger Report’s HechingerEd blog has a posting on a recent study comparing the graduation rates of students in small schools in New York City.  Below is a brief recap.  The posting accurately mentions student self-selection as possibly effecting the positive results.

Tony

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Hechinger Report Blog Posting

“You might have forgotten about the small schools movement amid all the recent hubbub about overhauling teacher evaluations. But a study released on January 25th reminds us that only a few years ago, reducing the number of total students in a school was seen as a key weapon in the arsenal of urban school reform, and suggests that perhaps small schools shouldn’t have been so quickly abandoned as a reform strategy.

In 2010, MDRC, a nonpartisan, New York-based research group, found that New York City students who attended small high schools were more likely to graduate than their counterparts who applied to but didn’t ultimately attend small schools. A new study confirms the previous findings. A second group of students who cycled through the city’s small schools also had a greater likelihood of graduating than students at other, comparable schools.

New York City’s small schools aren’t selective, but they do have lotteries because of space constraints. The latest MDRC study followed cohorts of students who either won or lost the lottery to ensure the two groups were comparable.

There are more than 100 small schools in the city, many of which opened in the last decade under the Bloomberg administration. And other cities also embraced downsized schools as a way to improve student achievement. But the concept seems to have fallen out of favor, in part because the billions of U.S. dollars that the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation was giving to the movement dried up due to “disappointing” results. (Disclosure: The Gates Foundation is among the funders of The Hechinger Report.)

Also, there was–and continues to be–quite a lot of conflict over the other side of the small schools movement: the closure of big schools. One report about New York City’s small schools said they had a domino effect on larger schools: As big schools were shut down to make way for smaller ones, many students–often those with lower test-scores and less wherewithal to find their way to small schools–were funneled into the remaining large schools, which struggled and were then also slated for closure and replacement by new small schools.

And while small schools, on average, appear to be doing better with the students they receive, quite a few have done badly enough to meet the same fate as many of their bigger counterparts.

Nevertheless, the study’s authors say their evidence suggests that small schools remain a good idea: The graduation rate for students in the study’s small schools was nearly 69 percent, compared to 62 percent of students in the study’s other schools. The overall graduation rate in New York City’s public high schools is 70 percent.”

 

 

Bill Gates Makes $750 Million Donation to the Global Fund!!

Dear Commons Community,

The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation pledged a donation of $750 million  to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria.    The donation was made as a promissory note intended to tide the fund over regular cash shortages.

The New York Times reports that

“Mr. Gates, who made the announcement at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, said tough economic times were “no excuse for cutting aid to the world’s poorest…”

The Global Fund, which pays for AIDS drugs for more than 3 million poor people, has distributed more than 200 million mosquito nets and says it has prevented more than 4 million tuberculosis deaths. Now observing its 10th anniversary, it has been struggling to raise money. Its last fund-raising drive fell more than $1 billion short of the $13 billion the fund said it needed to continue existing grants. It recently said it could not make new ones.

Some government donors have backed away, either because of their own budget crises or because of thefts of the fund’s money in different countries. While not large, the thefts have made persistent headlines and been seized on by opponents of foreign aid.”

A most generous contribution to a worthy cause!

Tony


 

High School Graduation – Pay Now or Pay Later!!

Dear Commons Community,

On the heels of President Barack Obama’s State of the Union speech on Tuesday calling for improving high school graduation rates, Henry Levin (Teachers College) and Cecelia Rouse (Princeton) have an op-ed piece in the New York Times today providing further details on the issue.  President Obama proposed increasing the compulsory high school attendance rate to eighteen years old or until they  graduate.   While his proposal would surely help improve graduation rates, Levin and Rouse comment on the scope of the problem:

“In 1970, the United States had the world’s highest rate of high school and college graduation. Today, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, we’ve slipped to No. 21 in high school completion and No. 15 in college completion, as other countries surpassed us in the quality of their primary and secondary education.

Only 7 of 10 ninth graders today will get high school diplomas. A decade after the No Child Left Behind law mandated efforts to reduce the racial gap, about 80 percent of white and Asian students graduate from high school, compared with only 55 percent of blacks and Hispanics.”

Furthermore, they make the argument that as a country we can invest now in our high schoolers or pay later in the form of reduced wages or unemployment:

“If we could reduce the current number of dropouts by just half, we would yield almost 700,000 new graduates a year, and it would more than pay for itself. Studies show that the typical high school graduate will obtain higher employment and earnings — an astonishing 50 percent to 100 percent increase in lifetime income — and will be less likely to draw on public money for health care and welfare and less likely to be involved in the criminal justice system. Further, because of the increased income, the typical graduate will contribute more in tax revenues over his lifetime than if he’d dropped out.

When the costs of investment to produce a new graduate are taken into account, there is a return of $1.45 to $3.55 for every dollar of investment, depending upon the educational intervention strategy. Under this estimate, each new graduate confers a net benefit to taxpayers of about $127,000 over the graduate’s lifetime. This is a benefit to the public of nearly $90 billion for each year of success in reducing the number of high school dropouts by 700,000 — or something close to $1 trillion after 11 years. That’s real money — and a reason both liberals and conservatives should rally behind dropout prevention as an element of economic recovery, leaving aside the ethical dimensions of educating our young people.”

YES!!

Tony

 

 

President Obama – State of the Union!!

Dear Commons Community,

President Barack Obama gave his State of the Union speech last night.  He was on message and engaging but much of what he said sounded like he was campaigning.  There was a lot about the economy, jobs, the national debt, winding down the war in Afghanistan,  energy, etc.  He also talk a good deal more about education than I thought he would.  Workforce development, community colleges, stop teacher bashing, college costs, and instructional technology.  See excerpt below on education-related comments.   The full text of his speech is available at the Huffington Post.

A highlight of the evening was when President Obama and Rep. Gabrielle Giffords embraced just as he walked into the chamber.

Tony

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Excerpt from State of the Union

Jackie Bray is a single mom from North Carolina who was laid off from her job as a mechanic. Then Siemens opened a gas turbine factory in Charlotte, and formed a partnership with Central Piedmont Community College. The company helped the college design courses in laser and robotics training. It paid Jackie’s tuition, then hired her to help operate their plant.

I want every American looking for work to have the same opportunity as Jackie did. Join me in a national commitment to train two million Americans with skills that will lead directly to a job. My Administration has already lined up more companies that want to help. Model partnerships between businesses like Siemens and community colleges in places like Charlotte, Orlando, and Louisville are up and running. Now you need to give more community colleges the resources they need to become community career centers — places that teach people skills that local businesses are looking for right now, from data management to high-tech manufacturing.

And I want to cut through the maze of confusing training programs, so that from now on, people like Jackie have one program, one website, and one place to go for all the information and help they need. It’s time to turn our unemployment system into a reemployment system that puts people to work.

These reforms will help people get jobs that are open today. But to prepare for the jobs of tomorrow, our commitment to skills and education has to start earlier.

For less than one percent of what our Nation spends on education each year, we’ve convinced nearly every State in the country to raise their standards for teaching and learning — the first time that’s happened in a generation.

But challenges remain. And we know how to solve them.

At a time when other countries are doubling down on education, tight budgets have forced States to lay off thousands of teachers. We know a good teacher can increase the lifetime income of a classroom by over $250,000. A great teacher can offer an escape from poverty to the child who dreams beyond his circumstance. Every person in this chamber can point to a teacher who changed the trajectory of their lives. Most teachers work tirelessly, with modest pay, sometimes digging into their own pocket for school supplies — just to make a difference.

Teachers matter. So instead of bashing them, or defending the status quo, let’s offer schools a deal. Give them the resources to keep good teachers on the job, and reward the best ones. In return, grant schools flexibility: To teach with creativity and passion; to stop teaching to the test; and to replace teachers who just aren’t helping kids learn.

We also know that when students aren’t allowed to walk away from their education, more of them walk the stage to get their diploma. So tonight, I call on every State to require that all students stay in high school until they graduate or turn eighteen.

When kids do graduate, the most daunting challenge can be the cost of college. At a time when Americans owe more in tuition debt than credit card debt, this Congress needs to stop the interest rates on student loans from doubling in July. Extend the tuition tax credit we started that saves middle-class families thousands of dollars. And give more young people the chance to earn their way through college by doubling the number of work-study jobs in the next five years.

Of course, it’s not enough for us to increase student aid. We can’t just keep subsidizing skyrocketing tuition; we’ll run out of money. States also need to do their part, by making higher education a higher priority in their budgets. And colleges and universities have to do their part by working to keep costs down. Recently, I spoke with a group of college presidents who’ve done just that. Some schools re-design courses to help students finish more quickly. Some use better technology. The point is, it’s possible. So let me put colleges and universities on notice: If you can’t stop tuition from going up, the funding you get from taxpayers will go down. Higher education can’t be a luxury — it’s an economic imperative that every family in America should be able to afford.

Comparison of Candidates’ Tax Returns

Dear Commons Community.

In the past couple of weeks, a lot has been made of the tax returns of the leading presidential candidates.  Above is a quick comparison chart. Click on the image to enlarge.

You can also go to the New York Times website and see the full tax return for each of the candidates.

Tony

Romney v. Gingrich – Influence Peddling and Tax Returns!

Dear Commons Community,

Yesterday the Republican presidential primary centered on the debate in Florida, personal attacks of influence peddling, and income tax disclosures.  First, the debate (now down to four contenders) was interesting mainly because of the early and extensive attack of Newt Gingrich by Mitt Romney.  Romney portrayed Gingrich as a Washington insider with an office on K Street (metonym for the Washington lobbying industry) who makes millions of dollars peddling influence for clients.   He also referred to Gingrich as erratic and a failed leader who had to resign in disgrace.  Gingrich for his part was more careful in what he said and essentially accused Romney of distorting the truth if not in fact lying.

The second important issue was the disclosure of income tax returns.  The New York Times reported that Gingrich had already released his tax return from 2010 when he reported a total income of $3.16 million (including a tidy $76,200 Congressional pension). Most of Mr. Gingrich’s income has come from helping corporate clients gain access and solicitous treatment from Washington’s power elite. One of his consulting groups, the Center for Health Transformation, gave clients advice in reaching what it called “top transformational leadership across industry and government.”

Mitt Romney released tax records today indicating he paid $6.2 million in taxes on a total of $45.2 million in income over the years 2010 and 2011.  He paid an effective tax rate of 13.9 percent in 2010 and expects to pay a 15.4 percent rate when he  files his returns for 2011.  Romney’s tax rate is below that of most wage-earning Americans because most of his income, as outlined in more than 500 pages of tax documents, flows from capital gains on investments not wages.

Tony

 

 

Lawrence H. Summers – How Higher Education Will Change!

Dear Commons Community,

Lawrence H. Summers, former president of Harvard University and former secretary of the Treasury, had an essay yesterday in the New York Times based on a talk he gave at the Schools for Tomorrow conference.  I attended Dr. Lawrence’s talk and he was quite impressive as a speaker, standing in the middle of the stage, never referring to notes, and making a clear, precise presentation.  In essence, he speculated on how undergraduate education will change.  His comments were directed to all of higher education but they may be of particular interest at CUNY as we contemplate significant changes to our degree requirements.  Here are some excerpts.

He opened his talk:

“Part of universities’ function is to keep alive man’s greatest creations, passing them from generation to generation. Certainly anyone urging reform does well to remember that in higher education the United States remains an example to the world, and that American universities compete for foreign students more successfully than almost any other American industry competes for foreign customers.

Nonetheless, it is interesting to speculate: Suppose the educational system is drastically altered to reflect the structure of society and what we now understand about how people learn. How will what universities teach be different?”

He then presented six changes:

  1. Education will be more about how to process and use information and less about imparting it.
  2. An inevitable consequence of the knowledge explosion is that tasks will be carried out with far more collaboration.
  3. New technologies will profoundly alter the way knowledge is conveyed. Electronic readers allow textbooks to be constantly revised, and to incorporate audio and visual effects.
  4.  As articulated by the  Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman in “Thinking, Fast and Slow,” we understand the processes of human thought much better than we once did. We are not rational calculating machines but collections of modules, each programmed to be adroit at a particular set of tasks. Not everyone learns most effectively in the same way.
  5. The world is much more open, and events abroad affect the lives of Americans more than ever before. This makes it essential that the educational experience breed cosmopolitanism — that students have international experiences, and classes in the social sciences draw on examples from around the world. It seems logical, too, that more in the way of language study be expected of students.
  6. Courses of study will place much more emphasis on the analysis of data…Of course, we’ll always learn from history…the capacity for analysis beyond simple reflection has greatly increased…

His conclusion:

A good rule of thumb for many things in life holds that things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then happen faster than you thought they could… the next quarter century will see more change in higher education than the last three combined.”

Tony

 

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